The market falls.

25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«Chef, everything is gone! Gypsum remove! The client leaves! «

(C) k / f «Diamond hand»

In general, the question made in the title, there are a lot of answers. And, oddly enough, among them even the correct answers will still be much more than one.

To begin with, let’s understand what: «The market falls»? But if today, according to the results of trading, the Mosbierzhi index dropped on half a percentage — is it already called «the market falls» or not yet?

How many sessions in a row should fall the market so that you can talk about falling? What should be the total drawdown of the index from the maxima? In fact, it is quite difficult to give accurate answers to these questions, and therefore many analysts and journalists use the concept of «market decline» quite arbitrarily.

Here, with the term «bearish market» more than certainty — the drop in at least 20 percent of the previously achieved maxima — and simply «drop», it turns out, you can call any market movement down to any value, less than 20 percent.

Actually, the very understanding of the fact that only the index drawdown can be considered a serious fall («bearish market»), gives us an answer to do with smaller drops.

The most reasonable thing is not to twitch. Consistent movements in general to the investor are contraindicated, no wonder there is a proverb that «The Best Investor is a dead investor.» And such a routine thing, as a correction in the market, which (due to its insignificance), has no right to be called a «bearish market» — well, such little things should not disturb the investor at all.

Here, of course, you need to do a few reservations — «Investor», which we say, of course, did not use the «credit shoulder», but bought shares exclusively for my own money. Moreover, these own money, he is ready to keep the market for many years — they will not need our investor next summer to build cottages or expansion of the apartment, for example. Here, with such introductory, ordinary drawdors, even if ten-percent dozen, cannot force our investor to fuss — it will be calm like an elephant.

And what if the drawdown is extraordinary? If, as they say, «the case smells as kerosene,» that is, not a simple correction in the market, and the most that neither is a real bear market? Maybe to such Armageddon, even the most imperturbable investor wants to somehow specially prepare?

Let’s deal with.

To begin with, see if there are concerns now that the situation can really accept so serious turnover? There are such fears, and they sound are not relatively.

Let’s try to list some of the factors that cause serious concerns.

It was only some — and not all are objective prerequisites for a bear market.

But maybe these problems do not worry serious financiers? Worried, and as long as.

For example, Buffett and so kept a huge share of cache in the portfolio, and recently he continued to get out of securities. Since the beginning of the year, net sales of Berkshire Hatava made up about five billion dollars.

And the Ray Dalio Foundation does not go to the cache, but shifted in protective assets. Ray Dalio considers such a production and trade in the essential goods and the health sector.

And besides these guru, many analysts say that, most likely, the market correction will most likely. Will she turn into a full-scale bear market? This, of course, no one can know for sure. But the fact that concerns of such a turn of events are fully founded — this does not cause any doubts.

So what can an investor be made in anticipation of a bearish market?

Let’s look at the available options.

Gold is growing in the case of stability search, if the remaining assets are falling — this is true, and in conditions of a bearish market it can support the price of gold. But if the Fed substantially limits the influx of money to the market — this can create a liquidity deficit conditions unfavorable for gold growth. So one hundred percent panacea from the fall of the market does not look like.

In fact, at a high level of inflation, rental rates can produce not at all interesting yield (in comparison with the same OFZ, for example).

There is a lot of «but». It is possible to start with the fact that dividends — the thing is not a guaranteed thing, and even the most extended company can cut them or cancel them in some year. And most importantly, the stock market falls very much, and every investor would like to take advantage of such purchases, and not sit in the cheap promotions, losing dark times, even if we even get into consolation some amount of dividends.

Summing up, it turns out that it is impossible to carry out ideal preparation for falling the market — the crises themselves are too different and financial instruments behave in different ways in different conditions.

However, several ideas can still be considered universal:

We default assuming that the investor invests only his money. If it is not, then

As for me, I did not make any special changes in the portfolio associated with the expectation of a possible bear market. There are two reasons for it:

First, no one knows the specific deadlines for the onset of the bear market, and lose the yield of an indefinite time being out of the market («sitting on the fence», as traders say) do not want.

Secondly, my portfolio and so sufficiently safe (as far as a safe portfolio can be consisting almost one hundred percent of the shares of one country). Shares are selected only by large enterprises, profits (at least this year) in all beautiful. Dividends in 2022 on the portfolio are decent.

So I decided to expect a possible bearish market without changing the portfolio. And if there is a serious drawdown, I will not worry, I will not worry, I will simply have to buy fastened shares for dividends. So I will have a little more stock — and a little more chance of becoming