The darker hour — before dividends

25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«Decently arise under the blows of fate …»

(are. Shakespeare.

Many «wonderful» happened in the world lately. And some wonderful events did not bypass my portfolio.


Issued, as they say, in both hands. How the ball in the old cartoon complained — «then the paws are neut, the tail is falling off»)) So here, then «Trezeris» grow, then gold falls))

Well, okay, let’s disassemble the gifts in order.

Let’s start with international news.

Literally in the past Saturday (09.04), Alibab received a record fine from the authorities

As you can see, the fine is really a record — surpasses the one that our authorities imposed on Norilsk Nickel. It seems that I attract record fines — the authorities always prescribe huge fines of the company whose shares I am currently owned)). Perhaps soon companies will be ready to pay me money so that I just do not buy their shares))

In fact, a story with a fine of Alibaba, this story from the category «is better a terrible end than horror without end.» Investors, seeing a record fine, exhaled and delighted — maybe there will be no other repression (even more so, the company herself will gladly sprinkle ashes and says that he takes a fair punishment that it will benefit her and will help her be better and will not be it challenge).

And investors so delighted this penalty that Alibaba is already all the records beats. More nine percent growth per day. And this is for such an «elephant» like Alibab !!!

I want to note that even on the weekend I read the analyst with skepticism I estimated the prospect of Ali on Monday — they say a record fine, and it is also not clear — everything will end with this fine … some predicted a fall on Monday … but the market judged differently.

From international events to native fenats.

And what are we all about chinese jack ma? The story with the Russian Jack Ma right in our eyes may begin.

So, in order.

March 11, Tsar-Batyushka held an online meeting with a business community about increasing investment activity. Everything was chinno-noble and nothing foreshadowed troubles, as suddenly at the very end of the meeting, Moshkovich, who controls the shareholder Rusagro, dares to turn to the emperor with his petoon. In the most polite and loyal expressions, Moshkovich raised, nevertheless very unpleasant hearing of the first person of the topic:

That the state behaves completely inconsistently and unpredictable, introduces duties for exports of agricultural products, when agricultural producers (following the indication of the same state in exporting exports of agricultural products) concluded contracts with buyers for a year ahead and stamped markets. And how now these contracts do ???

That the state has limited prices for agricultural products, without limiting the price of fertilizer and fuel. And how can agricultural producers now live in these scissors ???

that the state only promises the financing of joint projects, and, for example, many years of genetic studies that conducted Rusagro and which the state should have co-finanted by 50%, the state did not finance during all years of research in general, and now (when the results have been achieved) the state funded Only 10%.

What these genetic studies, for example, allow you to increase the yield of beets twice and thus increase the amount of sugar produced in the country so much that the price of the price will go away by itself, but do not need to pull the company that all this is engaged.

That profit company invests in accordance with the wishes of the government in the development of the Far East — are building pig farms over 32 billion rubles there and would like to show them at the first highest visit.

And you know what has become the result of this penetrating and intelligent speech of a person who has gone to billions, but not lost naive faith in a fair barina, and the necrisse is shot?

Well, what are your options? Brew, bolder, put forward ideas?

In Rusagro, a tax audit came. Yes, that’s the trite.

I do not think that the first person was preplicable. Although he was probably unpleasant to know from Moshkovich such an ambush that «it turns out» prices grew not only on the oil and sugar, but at all not only for food — a and on fertilizers, and fuel)))

You understand yourself — this is the whole picture of the world in the Supreme turned over. In winter, as it was simple — fixed the price for sunflower oil and sugar — and well. The people are fed and satisfied. And now what ??? Now or you need to let go of sugar and oil — and how then to live? Or fix prices for fertilizers and fuel — but there are the lobbyists toothy, not the fact that the sirota-Rusagro. Or wait for food deficit in the country. In general, one disorder from this midgeovich.

And from my speech, Moshkovich, finally, the picture of the deprived lobbyists of Syarotka-Ruzagro was finally developed.

Moshkovich from despair is forced to contact right to the first person. The company’s Ministry of Agriculture does not help. Genetic studies — and they do not finance. I’m silent about other aid measures — all other agroholds get.

By the way about other agroholdings.

Have you seen a list of ten busy products in budget supermarkets? And look, if not too lazy. This is an open information, it is not difficult to google. I’m hintable — yes, sugar is there. But the sunflower oil is not. But the chicken, for example, is in three types — a whole carcass, fillet, eggs. Three positions out of ten businesses. And you know what?

Rusagro does not produce a chicken. But the chicken produces Cherkizovo. And Miratorg.

The chicken prices rose no less than sugar and sunflower oil. Chicken is much more important for the diet of people. And it is more useful — we note in brackets. Why did not the price limitations on the chicken and the eggs ??? Why found such a strange set of products to limit prices — sugar and oil — what eventually only one holding fell under the blow ???

How would one famous TV presenter say «Coincidence? I do not think» )))

Moshkovich appeals to the first person, since Rusagro’s price restrictions loses 200 million net profit monthly. Approximately 10-12% of annual profit — if the situation does not change this year.

Let’s hope that the tax audit is not a deadly pill for Rusagro. Still, he turned to the first person very loyal, I don’t think that I called anger.

Only here, Moshkovich’s appeal directly to the first person was strongly upset by the Minister of Agriculture, which is part of a powerful domineering clan. From here and repression.

Okay, I repeat, let’s hope that it is not fatal for the company and for Moshkovich personally.

By the way about Moshkovich. I read about its creation of the school «Letovo» — penetrated to him very deeply respected and sympathy. He invested more than $ 200 million to school (charitable project), which should be one of the best in the world. Indeed one of the best in the world — for this, it is equipped at the appropriate level and the experience of advanced worldwide admirals and teachers Moshkovich is ready to hire the best for any money. I believe — such people improve the country around themselves.

I will not show a finger at any of the oligarchs — but here I do not remember super yachts, and I found $ 200 million to school. Yes, I will foresee anyway, Rugan in the comments — not the last I gave (we have people and such a good deed will find how to wrap). It seems to me that if all our members of the Forbes list were building educational institutions (or hospitals, for example) in our country for hundreds of millions of dollars — after 50 years our country would not be distinguished from America. There, just in every university full of buildings of a millionaire and a large number of hospitals built and equipped with rich-donations.

In principle, in the financial plan, Rusagro feels great, despite the price limitations and the rise in fertilizer and fuel prices. Let’s hope that the tax authorities and people do not get to the best agroholding of the country. If you strangle well-working agroholding — products in the country will no longer. And the prices for them will not downgrade. I tell you exactly.

In the meantime, as written in the title — we hope that the company is the darker hour before dividends. Dividend cut-off April 14. Dividends are large — 8.5%.

Let’s look at the closure of the dividend GPA — the company has not yet closed. Especially after a quarrel with the minister)))

Well, since we figured out with the events of international, and with Russian events, let’s reinfeit the bridge from international events to our homeland.

Such a bridge will serve as a ZPIF FPR (located in his homeland and investing in American ipio).

As for the CPIF FPR and its results — ransacuating Grishkovets, I would say that «he does not please us lately, and recently something stretches for quite a long time»))

Moreover, personally do not like two points that make me think about parting with this wonderful foundation.

The complements conducted by the Foundation, as far as we understand, were dictated by the requirements of the Central Bank for 60% restriction on tools available to unskilled investors. Simply put — the fund now in IPIO is invested by no more than 40%. This is such a folk conclusion. I saw numerous supasses on this subject, but I did not find one-time explanation on the Foundation’s website. (If someone found official explanations — I will be glad to learn about them.) In the meantime, I do not really like it and the very fact that «work» will be only 40% of the money and the fact that no explanation is visible about it.

Bidenov’s money has long been on the market. I do not see any fund reaction. Well, that is, there was some at the first signal of infusion to the market 1.9 trillion. And all … and silence. It is sad. There are rear-numbers written explanations of analysts about the fact that Trezeris rose and all the money flowed there. Yes, and bitcoins people like more than Ipio. Yes, and Ipio was not particularly … a lot of explanations. Nevertheless, all this instills sadness.

According to the CPIF FPR — summing up. Not pleased with opaque behavior. While looking at the movement for a while. Based on the general numerous forecasts for bad perspectives of the American market in the second half of the year — there are thoughts to exit the fund in the near future.

Since we are talking about the points of exit and entry))

Going out of Norilskie the released money invested in Polymetal.

The average turned around 1600.

The position of the Polymetal position in the portfolio went for all the rules not that diversification, but even decency))

What is happening now in Nickel on the one hand a little soothes — one mine partially launched ahead of schedule (really, well done, guys), another is revealed. Dividends gathered to pay. Negotiations are negotiating with RUSAL. Well, quite peaceful. We did not even notice that this peaceful rhetoric minority, it seems that dividends have been slightly decreased, compared with the previous expectations, and the principle of their calculation has changed. Well, in fact — who in such details is deliberate? )))

However, the forecasts of investment banks are not optimistic about nickel. I do not know — maybe investbankers simply do not have time for the news background?

In general, if you look at the forecasts, the picture turns out a little strange. There are forecasts that managed to change after the accident — they all changed to significantly lower. And there are those who have not noticed at all. It looks very strange. As if there is no moderate influence of the accident on the company’s assessment at all in the «Options» of analysts. Or «drama» or «ignore».

I have in this ambiguous background until the desire to restore the position does not occur. I want «dust of the donkey» to the end. Although the hyperoptimistic forecasts also grabs, so I understand that I can be late and I will buy when all the problems clarify, 35 thousand))).

Now, with regard to polymetal. Or rather — gold and polymetal, as its derivative.

There are folk observations that gold always grows in April and always falls in May))

Well, if you go beyond the limits of folk observations, and go to more scientific things. There is a fairly reasonable opinion that in gold we have already visited the gold or pass it in May. Rising Razzris rates have nowhere to continue nowhere. So from this side of the ambush wait no longer. Strengthening the dollar — accordingly too. There will be no reasons for him.

In theory — gold growth in the area of 1850 is an almost inevitable summer scenario. And, accordingly, the growth of the polymetal to 1700+.

This, as they say, good news — almost all analysts converge on this forecast. In addition to all the «anti-rolling» opportunists))

Bad news is that the other opinions are diverged. Some serious guys believe that the next 1850 gold will not rise so simple.

As for me — what is happening on the market for the sale of polymetal at a price below 1500 and congenital greed makes it slowly buy it to all the small money, which are released. All the same, the Polymetal position is already «in any gate.» Here, here, as in folk wisdom — burned out the shed, burn and hut))

One way or another, the rebalance of the portfolio is abandoned, and when else the Polymetal below will see below? This temptation is insurmountable. Here, as I have repeatedly spoke, I feel completely calm — I buy for speculation than in the event of an unsuccessful speculation I agree to own ten years. This is a blue chip that pays dividends.


For today, a simple plan for rebalancing (in terms of time, apparently — for the summer) looks like this:

At the level of 1700+ sell part of the Polymetal position.

In the absence of impressive dynamics and clear prospects to sell the CPIF FPR.

Attach the money reversed in the prefather (mainly) and other dividend shares (PhosAgro, RusHydro, Norilsk, Globaltrans, Rostelecom Pref).


And if difficult times will last longer the second half of the year and in general, longer than I would like to — receive dividends and buy cheap stocks, slowly becoming