25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл


(c) K / F «Moscow does not believe in tears»

Here’s like «Rudolf», a varying quotation, made to the epigraph, where neither TKNI — there was one solid television, and we now, wherever NEW — everywhere one solid oil.

Here we take me. I decided to go in the footsteps of our advanced European neighbors — those that for the reduction of the carbon trace and in general «for all good and against all the bad.» I removed the oil workers from the investment portfolio and began to try to at least some briefcase from those Russian shares that remained.

And what happens?

But what.

Try, let’s say, buy stock shares — NCSP. It would seem — where the port, and where does the Mother’s oil? Yeah, Schar. And belongs to the port of Transneft and the lion’s share of profits from the port — from oil transportation. Falls the volume of transportation of oil — will fall the profitability of the port.

Well then — let’s buy Globaltrans? He is, in the depths of the country, there is a corner of the Iron Iron, probably, it takes, but other lumber? Nea, also will not come out. Also long-term contracts with Rosneft and Gazprom oil, and a significant proportion of oil cargo in cargo turnover.

Yes, what will you do!

There is no salvation from these oilmen!

Everywhere, they stretched their predatory tentacles and because of their misfortunes, all advanced humanity suffers in my face in particular))

And and the behold of advanced humanity, there is nothing to run ahead of the locomotive. It is necessary to «hurry slowly», as we were taught wise ancient Romans. Or, as the more straightforwards, our ancestors «Hurry — Mix people».

Here we take, for example, Sovcomflot, who actually is the subject of today’s article.

Perspectives at Sovcomflot are huge. And all these perspectives are associated with the development of LNG transport. Sovcomflot is almost monopolyruits NOVATEKA arctic projects, so «plans for hute». Ahead. Far ahead.

Far ahead — I know for sure — Sovcomflot is waiting for a very large and bright future. It will carry the huge volumes of LNG in Arctic latitudes — almost monopolo, do not pinently repeat. To make money on this huge profit and distribute some of this huge profits to its shareholders in the form of high dividends …

Mdaa … But, as the poet said:

Because before this golden time of transportation of large volumes of LNG will come — there will be a few years of difficult time of high capes. Since this very LNG must be treated on something, Sovkomflot will be a strengthened pace to build gas carriers. And, apparently, shareholders will have to tighten the belt during these years.

How strong???

But this is a very interesting question.

Can I start a little afar?

Here, now the shareholders of the NCSP complain about small dividends. And where are they and to take — big dividends — if the profit of the NCSP fell by 92%?

BUT! I want to notice that even in the difficult 2020 NMTP, which some of his shareholders offend, showed profit. Let a decrease in many times, but profit.

So. NMTP has profits. And braking his stability for the years ahead of the chartered revenue of Sovcomflot — showed a net loss in the first quarter of 2021.

My regular readers know how much I am obsessed with this indicator — net profit. There is no net profit — everything, the company for me is «bad, unfit».

Yes, a loss of Sovcomflot Accounting — arising after the accrual of a reserve for impairment, if you delve into the details completely. But this will not be important to shareholders in 2022, since the «Accounting» loss or non-tightener will lead to the fact that the dividends for 2021 will be bad — this is not the most important question.

It was clear that Sovkomflot brought to the IPO on the results of successful couples and the indicators that we have seen earlier may not repeat. For example, I did not take the paper on the IPO.

But, one thing some deterioration of the indicators is completely different — losses. By the way — if you look at the reporting of Sovkomflot, then the loss years in his past is not uncommon, but it seemed (I didn’t seem to me in my fantasies, «and the general public in the prospectuses before IPO» presented «) that the company has stabilized its cash flows, balanced Cashflow , and knows how to develop further. Since she has a difficult period ahead — the time of high capes, even if the admission is now on the market of cheap money.

What are the arguments in favor of retention in the Sovkomflot portfolio?

They are available.

First, analysts unanimously promise growth growth on the horizon of the year. It looks quite believable — on the wave of the end of the pandemic, the volume of transportation of petroleum products and freight costs can increase. Therefore, if this company has been a speculative position in the portfolio, then it may be reasonable to hold it until the end of the year. In my case, Sovcomflot was acquired as a dividend chip and he, apparently, did not pass the casting ((

Secondly, if you think a very long prospects of the «bright future», then the company after all capeps on the construction of gas carriers will indeed be a leader and almost a monopolist in the transport of LNG in Arctic latitudes. And this is a huge earnings.

But I have on the subject of retention of stocks such a question — why should I not rebound into the company then, when will the bright future happen? Perhaps it will be more expensive? There is such a chance. But there is also the likelihood that on low dividends in the following years of paper will come around. In general, it is not an obvious solution, I still tend to exit this position.

To discharge a little pessimistic article — I will allow myself an old anecdote here. This is one of my dad’s favorite jokes. He is a marine officer, and largely genetic thrust for the sea led me to the purchase of Sovkomflot in the portfolio. So the anecdote will be here, in my opinion it is very appropriate.

In the Maritime Military School there is a distribution of cadets.

The round excellent student and the best cadet caused, set the commission from the gray admirals at night and say:

Since we have such a whole best, we decided to consider your wishes. Speak — where you want to serve.


He is answered: the guy, we have a fleet here — it’s hard everywhere. Speak where you want to serve.

The guy says: «Then — to Moscow!»

Admirals were stunned from such a turn of events and asked:

Wait, you rushed to serve on a fleet where it is difficult … And now you ask for Moscow … There’s not even the sea!

The cadet replies: «Do you know how hard the sailor without the sea?»

Well, I feel that, even though it is difficult to sailor without the sea, but on the growth before the dividend cut-off I will sell Sovcomflot and buy paper with large dividend prospects. And with big hopes to make me