Rostelecom — Mount Sisifa or promising company?

24 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«Hope — the last thing that dies in man»

(s) Diogenes

Of course, according to the present phenomenal memory, I can not boast. But how much I remember the existence of the securities market of Russia — so much time Rostelecom was a promising company and was always at all hearing. Since the time of loud disputes around Svyazinvest.

But this company is clearly not for Toropag. Simple example: In 2007, 92 rubles cost Rostelecom’s prefs. «Only» fourteen years old passed and — Voila — Prefines «Perspective Company» again storm this height))

It would seem — just read the previous paragraph and you can finish the study of the Issuer. What else is it interesting for you to know about the company, if you have already read such «horrors»? But we will try not to succumb to panic and try to look at the company with a fresh look.

After all, life does not stand still. And life in general, and economic life in particular. And technical progress. Communication — and even wider than the connection, but telecommunications, multimedia — began to occupy a completely different place in the life of a modern person — not what occupied 20 years ago.

Actually, why did I attend the telecommunications sector at all? I somehow closer to the attachment into something pressing — in food, notorious. But I drew attention that even with my love to eat with a plate in my hands, I spend time much less than with a smartphone. In the smartphone and work, and recreation, and entertainment, and investment (yes, yes — I am the captain’s obvious)))

But what’s the conclusion? And the conclusion — telecommunications seemed to be placed on the first step of the notorious «Pyramid of the Oil», and not on the second.

That is, without a telecom, a modern person can not live, it is now also the «life» need.

So much the vital need of a modern man, which previously there were food and water, now steel and electricity with the Internet.

And it opens up very interesting prospects for Rostelecom’s company.

Let’s follow from the general reasoning about the «place and role of telecommunications in modern society» by the company itself.

So.

Rostelecom

Spectrum of services

State patience

38.2% of the Russian Federation (Rosim Property Management Agencies)

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29.4% belongs to VTB (one can say — also to the state, but the view from the other side).

Total, Rostelecom on our unaccompoxies turned out to be quite a state office. But, as already written above — the shareholders should not be sought from this. Rather, on the contrary, the state adherence acts on the investor soothing.

We give a simple example.

Now there is a protracted intrigue with frequency distribution for 5G. MTS received a license and began to deploy 5G networks. In the range of 24,25-24.65 GHz. Only full-fledged networks in this range in the opinion of technical specialists unfold unreal — unprofitable. It is necessary to deploy in the range of 3.4-3.8 GHz — which is busy in Russia by forceful departments.

And here is such an interesting version, I don’t know how true it is true — that the correct range can be provided not to all companies.

And now the shareholder of MTS, hearing such news, can start nervous. And the shareholder of Rostelecom knows exactly — that the correct frequencies will not pass by the right frequencies)) or they will get all companies to all companies. Well, or one Rostelecom. The opposite is impossible.

There, after all, the area of business is generally sensitive to state interests. Not only frequencies occupied by the security forces. But personal data, for example, notorious.

Here Rostelecom begins to actively insert into cloud services. I have a suspicion that he will have a big «Fora» in this area of business — probably the state will require representatives and state buildings and even private companies to conduct cloud processing of «sensitive» data on local servers and in local data centers.

That is, competing Rostelek will have not with global computing capacities, but with local — well, here it is most likely a champion with a large margin.

By the way.

In terms of a large state share, the parallel with the American telecommunications «Monster» — AT & T. There, too, almost from the very beginning of the life of the company there were close ties with state and military structures. And these close contacts with the military and with the authorities — there are all the lifetime of the company. And what to do? «Communication» is the sphere of state interests and to whom the state fell, this area cannot trust.

And nowadays, when the «remotely» occurs more and more work — including those associated with money, secrets and powerful powers — «Communication» and «Telecommunications» are the most unexpected things.

For example, Rostelecom is the only supplier of cryptobiocabine for multifunctional centers «My Documents». It is not difficult to guess that this is a rather big market and a rather big money.

In 2020, Rostelecom consolidated 100% of the body 2. Now it is his one hundred percent daughter. In my opinion — synergy turned out very pleasant.

Rostelecom is such a huge and strategic — aimed at global long-term projects. And body 2 is a normal cellular operator, which should earn a trifle for pocket expenses «older brother»)) only in fact the body 2 is not just a «normal cellular operator» — and now this is the only operator that confidently builds the client base Recent years, taking customers from other operators.

Let’s check your guesses. Let’s look at the numbers.

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That’s not everything is so unequivocal. The dominant position appeared not yesterday, and the company’s financial indicators did not always rejoice.

However, as they say, «who the old will remember — the eye of the eye.» If you look in recent years — it looks like the company came the second youth. In recent years, it grows all the indicators that the investor should be interested.

Revenue is consistently growing since 2016. And from 2018 grows very much.

2018 — 320 billion revenues

2019 — 476 billion revenues

2020 — 547 billion rubles of revenue.

Cute figures, but I, of course, do not wait to take a glance at my favorite net profit))

And there is something to rest on the eye))

After several inadvertent years, which began with 2014 (I do not even want to think why) Net profit of the last three years climbed up with good rates.

2018 — 14 billion rubles

2019 — 20 billion rubles

2020 — 24 billion rubles

There is a feeling that this time «Sisifa» shakes a stone on the mountain of the row, and does not slow down on 92 rubles again)) and then this «stone» will throw into space.

Why do I think so?

Telecommunications began to occupy a completely different place in the country’s economy. This is no longer just a «dialer» in the hands of people.

And in this new reality, Rostelecom is opened a huge market, where his interests are protected by a demonopoly position.

As for dividends. I speak only about the prefs — I always, when there are preferred stocks I only buy them, we will manage to manage, in fact)) so — Rostelecom’s prefs gave recent years quite normal dividends — in the region of 7-9 percent (severe 2020 not We will consider indicative). It is strange, by the way, in all sorts of ratings of the dividend shares of Mosbirja with smaller dividends, it appears much more often than Rostelecom — these are the fades of compilers of ratings.

Well, summarize.

As I have repeatedly noted — since we live in the era of state-capitalism — it is necessary to use the fact that we, simple citizens, are not forbidden to buy shares of large state monopolies, which the state will always support: Gazprom, RusHydro, Sberbank, Rosneft, Rostelecom.

So we can play a win-win game. Here every reasonable and patient player will receive a prize, and someone will even become