Psychology of the investor.25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл
«Pessimists are well informed optimists.»
(c) folk wisdom
There are such people — «survivalors». The guys are preparing for the onset of terrible catastrophe of varying degrees of globality — from nuclear winter before turning off electricity for a month (
So, survivalors have their own literature, their communities on the Internet, where they exchange information, how to build and disguise on the cottage, and which diesel generator is better to take it there.
Looking at them I remember the joke of the beginning of the restructuring that «now optimists are studying the Civil Code, pessimists — criminal, and realists — Avtomat Kalashnikov.»
At one time, he read the books and forums of survivalors — exciting, by the way. This is not Maide Max, drawn on the knee — everything is thought out for a hundred steps forward. Nelluey people scare each other and themselves themselves in the most different horror stories and together invent, how to get out of these situations.
I have nerves and nature is not very strong. In addition, the work of the lawyer has not yet strengthened anyone — worse, probably, only by the tender (the nervousness is the same, plus the permanent opportunity to «climb on the zones of the pots»). So seeds of survivalors got straight into the fertile soil — I read and terrible.
It turns out that the trouble lifts us at each angle. It is worth stopping the delivery of food to the megalopolis for a week — total hunger. Disable electricity in the metropolis — catastrophe in transport, industries (and if longer than a few hours — stop operations in hospitals). In general, Million terrible scenarios. And pay attention — even without global epidemics and thermonuclear war.
It was thinking about the fact that the truth — it is necessary to have a stock of stew at home and it would be nice to buy a cottage with autonomous electricity.
And then I read the excellent phrase from some kind of «Noime» a writer, who helped me calm down and look at everything a bit near a different angle. He said so «people are very worried about the possible global end of the world, forgetting that the end of the world personally may come on any day by the fault of an unknown drunk driver.»
Personally, this consideration helped me think about the likelihood of the onset of certain situations and helps and now challenged the thoughts about possible «black scenarios».
By the way about black scenarios.
A rare person is able to come up with so many options for the poor development of events as a lawyer. Do not forget — you compete with a professional)) What is the work of a corporate lawyer? Submit which «ambush» can happen to the company and to progress from it. That is, at the stage, «imagine» fantasy exercises all life. Well, at least the whole career. For no accident, there is a saying from managers — «Want to lock a deal — discuss it with lawyers.» You will immediately tell you why the deal is doomed to failure. Straight on autopilot, not even straining imagination — scenarios, one sadder than the other, will come to mind themselves.
Therefore, I personally, when I am investing, always forget that I am a lawyer))
It is impossible to invest in stock without being an optimist — this is my deep conviction. Here I even with my favorite authority — Gram — I do not agree.
He spoke beautifully «a reasonable investor is a realist who buys shares from pessimists and sells optimists.» Whether he does not understand something, or I don’t understand him, but they always buy an action. Optimists are always — even in his example. And they sell — pessimists. At least — pessimistic about this promotion.
Take a fresh example with Norilsk Nickel. Do you really think that it is difficult for me to build an apocalyptic forecast and it is beautifully logically to justify why stocks should fall twice? I assure you, even the compilation of two such forecasts «from the sheet» will not be the slightest problem. Will there be sound grain? Some will be. Will they be most likely at the current event of events? In my opinion — no. Possible — yes. But are not most likely. Therefore, I go out of my own actions on the market, a rather optimistic look at the future of the company. And dramatic scripts scrolled in the head — and dropped, as unlikely.
Is there a risk of a serious fall of Nickel’s shares? Christmas trees, friends, but there is always the risk of a serious fall of stock. Not only nickel — and just at the entire market. Shares are a volatile tool. Markets are now on historical maxima. A bunch of analysts all the ears are pleased with the forecasts of a sharp correction (and someone — and at all forecasts for the onset of the bearish market). If you are unacceptable for you the idea of the drawdown of your deposit at some stage — the shares are not suitable for you just like the investment tool itself.
By the way, about investment tools and how attitude changes to them — I can tell a simple story about myself.
Many years ago, when I estimated the risks of investing money in the stock market or in private enterprises of my friend businessmen, I always preferred to deal with my friends. It was not that I straightly disgustly trusted my acquaintances. But I understood that we were about one social and economic situation with them, and therefore, I can be with them, for example, to successfully sue if something goes wrong. And in the case of the stock market, I was afraid that a huge company would be able to deal with «lawlessness» and I will not find any minor minority on it.
Therefore, for example, 10-15 years ago, I perceived the idea of investments in the business conditional Vasi Pupkin, as safer than attachment in stock on the stock exchange. I emphasize — I’m not saying that it was safer, I speak only about perception.
Now, looking at the decades of the existence of our stock market — I see that the ownership of shares of large companies is at least the blue chips — does not carry additional risks, in addition to the purely market.
I caught myself on the fact that recalling my investments of a decade ago, from the position of today, it seems strange that I didn’t go on the stock exchange? But then I read in the comments of people writing «All this scam, your Exchange, all your shares will be taken away, whether the property is real estate — you can even touch it.» — And I remember — Oh! — exactly, that’s why I thought so)))
And now, being configured a little more optimistic about the stock exchange in general — well, at least I believe that «shares do not take away»)) and in relation to purchased issuers in particular, it is a little easier for me to live — you can use more modern tools for , to become