Psychology of the investor.25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл
«Oh my cute summer child,» old Nen said quietly. — What do you know about fear? Fear is winter … «
(c) George Martin. Game of Thrones
Memory from our people, and so how fish-minute fish, and here also the newest history of capitalism has less than 30 years in the country. And the history of other people’s countries, our people do not like to study.
For example, communicated with the financial director of a large company, man, to the Word, much more than 50 years. And we arched about inflation: whether it will be able to hold its Fed in the coming years. He pereparcely argued that he could — after, the Fed had such a huge toolkit. To my comment: «And what they didn’t have to keep before, having this toolkit,» he made a misunderstanding face. But you would see his further amazement when he found out that in a relatively recent 1979 inflation in the United States was higher than 13% … It was a shock … It seems that his world will never be the same))
Yeah … «We are lazy and dislike,» Alexander Sergeevich said sadly. So only our citizens take into account our calculations in their calculations. And investors, unfortunately, are no exception.
You read our financial bloggers — well, rightly not getting tired of amazing their unquenities of consciousness and simpleness. I understand that «Chukchi is not a reader, Chukchi — a writer,» but read you, something before you write, carry your thoughts into the people. But after all, it is completely and next I see pearl type «This investment will bring to you by dividends 10% per annum until the end of your days.»
Yes the Christmas trees are green, if only the «end of the days» of this blogger and who he gives this executed unhealthy optimism the forecast will not come instantly, then
I will not show your finger for a couple constantly sining by these statements of characters here on Zen (I think the readers and themselves will be easily recognized), but they would cause less perturbation if they were not climbing with these tips to beginners. Moreover, in its optimism, these authors reach the calls to sell housing and invest in stock market, because there will definitely get about 10% dividends.
The problem of these comrades is that they are truly «summer children» — did not see the «long winter» in the Russian economy — crises quickly got up — and look at the same Japan, well, before, they do not reach it. That happens to them that in logic is called one of the classical errors — «hasty induction» — i.e. Hessed generalization.
A minute of scientific thinking. Calmly. Do not strain. I will explain on my fingers. Induction, if anyone forgot lectures on logic, this is the opposite thing that Sherlock Holmes did. He, with Dr. Watson, was practiced in deduction — when from common to private. And induction — the transition from private to the common one. Examples explain the easiest way.
And I see that people who extrapolate past results of our market for future years — a lot. Although all brokers are placed by warnings «Past results do not guarantee future income» — but who and when was carefully read in these warnings?
I saw how the people were tightened into such a trap of positive personal experience. In 2006, my comrade came to the stock market with a relatively small amount. The market grew, and as you know «all heroes in the growing market.» He went to the inheritance apartment from grandmother. » He sold it and put everything in Gazprom. Then was 2008. After that, the comrade had a personal negative experience, but he had no longer enough of the second apartment inheritance.
There is a very large psychological trap for investors who have come to the market now. They have seen by and large only growth and improvement in the market. All crises have come up too quickly to inflict an investor’s psyche to essential injury. For comparison — after the collapse of October 24, 1929, the Exchange was restored at times longer than after March fall in the 2020th, and American retail investors were completely psychologically recovered (by surveys) only after 15 years — that is, in fact, only the new generation of investors could «Forget» this collapse.
Our «summer children» are not ready for such. They do not know how to read anything, in addition to personal experience, they are not able to learn, but they do not tell her personal experience. In the bins of their wisdom, I even had such a thought that the stocks in principle could not lose money)) Well, with such optimism, the guys are one good — they do not threaten the heart attack.
Well, we will have to do with you, after all, look at a slightly more realistic look. Yes, our personal experience shows that the shares are always growing, and the dividends increase every year. But it is still necessary to look at the sides of the same way — we know that in the same Japan before the thirty-year period of stagnation, too, everything was fine. And knowledge is power. That power that will help us become