Portfolio for 40 million retailers and builders.25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл
«In many wisdom, a lot of sadness; And who multiplies knowledge, multiplies grief. «
(c) Ecclesiastes (1:18)
Just let’s right immediately agree — we will talk about specific companies today — namely about the sectors of the economy. In the title of the article, it says — «Retakers and builders» — no questions for a particular peak or to the children’s world — great companies. Straight wonderful. And for some reason they are reluctant to see them.
What’s the catch?
You know, there was such a founder of the Olympic Movement, Marquis Pierre de Cubert. And he spoke beautifully about sports: «We must look for difficulties to overcome them, you need to look for fear to defeat it.» Well, what is said? A? Pathos. Already goosebumps by body … mda …
Well, in my opinion, investment is not a sport, we are not needed here. We would be under the hill, yes, it is desirable with a passing wind. Were we when they discussed the paper to the prospect of long investment, which was brought out as one of the most important selection criteria? Right —
And what unites two sectors of the economy? They both are focused on domestic demand. Not just for domestic demand — on the demand of individuals — the so-called segment B 2C — Business to Consumer — delivery of products to the final consumer.
Theoretically, it can give some advantages, protecting against fluctuations of market demand (the traditional argument of investors buying shares Magnet or X5 — «People will always buy products»). So it is so, only you just just that people simply buy products. You bought shares percentage of revolutions and profits, and dividends. Can we count on it?
Before writing the following paragraphs, directly ladies disclameer for commentators — guys, killing the messenger who brought bad news is somehow not modern))) you can believe me — I’m a patriot, no worse than you. Me here in the comments reproach that even too patriot — they say, it is necessary to buy more American stocks, and I mainly take Russian)) But be a patriot and not to notice the facts are different things. And swearing on a man who simply leads facts — on this occasion, the Krylov «Necha on the mirror of the jam …»
So the guys, the facts are such that the population of us recent years has been planned ((
The end and the edges of this trend are not yet visible and when it breaks — it is not clear. Therefore, even reasoning «will not cease to buy food» — this is reasoning from the evil. Previously, they bought more sausages — now more potatoes. Food will not stop buying, only the turnover from your store will fall — and your dividends too.
But Retail prevents not only the fall in the incomes of the population — online presses on a traditional retail with an unimaginable force. Offline retailers try to intercept the initiative and go online. Someone gets better, someone is worse, the struggle is not easy and the result is not obvious.
Recently, a report released by Ark Invest Management is called «bad ideas in 2020,» they analyze the dying of traditional retailers in the world — their conclusions are categorical and very sad — notice, it is outside the context of the elimination of the population, only in the context of the fight against online.
X5, and magnet, and children’s world, M-video are excellent companies with excellent management and beautiful strategic plans. They now pay excellent dividends and some time can even feel good — and it can be twisted and will always be on horseback. But you, like the investor, there is a choice between retail and other sectors of the economy that do not have such system problems. Why do you need problems?
Similarly, with builders — yes, the preferential mortgage spacked the demand for housing, the solvency of this demand is under a big question. Even in the network I read the optimists who plan to handle mortgage apartments and to beat the mortgage — the most soft term applicable to these people — «Kremlin dreamers»)) To whom they gathered to take their apartments, shy to ask? All solvent citizens took a mortgage, the benefit give it to a really small percentage. Inconsipient to rent housing — an attraction is not for the weak spirit, considering that the bank does not care for what reason you did not receive the next amount — mortgage — even preferential — it is necessary to pay on time.
Yes, God with them with the future grief — Earlier, who will sell the next cloud of apartments built next year? Maybe even a preferential mortgage will extend even to infinity? After all, our unemployment has grown and official, and unofficial, the people have a fairy-tale pace, but housing prices are growing. Diva is given from this picture, to be honest.
It all was a side view. And now just a couple sketching from the inside — about your old company.
It so happened that my last place of work was at the same time a retailer and builder. The company builds a shopping center in the regions and owns / manages. It is clear that this is not quite a magnet and not quite peak — but the business direction is close enough. So the problematics are very similar.
Saturing the first — Russian real estate.
My client had the need to get some amount in the form of a loan. The amount was required promptly, I could not agree with banks, I came to my beloved financial guru.
The client was ready to give a very high interest rate and the provision was quite worthy — the land plot under the residential building in the city of Moscow, which is many times more than the amount that the client asked. Just to understand my shock from further history — the interest rate, which was offered for a loan — 30% per annum in rubles. Time half of the year.
The moment, however, was very nervous — the most height of the pandemic hysteria — the Guru had closed all of its shopping malls, and he carried terrible losses. But nevertheless, here at such an attractive offer, I heard an extremely emotional answer that in &&& it is not a penny in life. None under 30% under 300.
He talked a little with colleagues.
And that’s what’s interesting.
The company is thinking about entering the IPO since 2008. Well, why did not come out in 2008, it is not necessary to explain — everyone can figure out))
But now about interesting. Watch out for reasoning — will be entertaining.
Remember, recently Sovcomflot went to the IPO? And many talked about what he was cunning — so felt that he came to IPIO after super successful two years — so it was very highly appreciated by the market.
This is not a special cunning of Sovkomflot. In principle, all companies are trying to reach ipio after a successful year. Or several.
Well, now — now the most interesting. About retail. About network shopping center. Since 2008, IPIO of my wonderful company has decided to forcing and spend in the near future.
Maybe you think that she did not suffer from a pandemic in 2020? Very mistaken — she suffered terribly. But shareholders came to the conclusion that the ipio must be carried out urgently.
So. We fold «two and two». IPIO spend after a successful year. Ipio decided to spend urgently. Looks like — Retail is coming even more bad years. Last year, a volitional decision was recognized as good)))
People who took this decision knew about the retail market more than I, so, apparently, it is necessary to buy by farmers and metallurgists.
I look at the epigraph to the article and I think — here I have so much doubt on builders and retail, because I recently worked there, and I worked in metallurgy and agroholding for a long time, so I don’t know about the current misfortunes. It and thank God. And then in whom would it be invested? Only in the savings? ))
And so — everything is fine, to my services Norilskel, Rusagro, Severstal — there is nothing to regret the builders and retailers, and without them there is someone to do me