Portfolio for 40 million planning horizon

25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«There is only a moment, dazzling MiG.»

(c) L. Derbenyev

For 2020, four and a half million new «investors» appeared on the mosserge. What do I know about them? I know that

How I know it, ask you, I have no crystal ball, and all this refers to the future. Very simple. Approximately such is the statistics of all past «investors», on all exchanges in the world (

What do you think, how quickly it is going to get rich an average citizen who came to the stock exchange?

Well, try at least suggesting what kind of growth rate of its shares is waiting for the average investor? What, you do not know the answers to these questions? Yes, quit, most likely, you guess the correct answer, but refuse to believe that everything is really so simple.

YES. The middle man who came to the stock exchange is going to get rich in the very near future. Very fast. Unimaginably quickly. He has no time to wait. Actually, it is this and represents the problem.

Buffett (where without him) this has long been clearly formulated —

And what, actually greedy differs from patient?

Horizon planning

This is just about different planning horizons today and let’s talk.

Some planning horizon, he has every person who has come to the market. And at the real long-term investor, and Daily Trader, and the most desperate scalpel. Just these horizons are very different.

Investor Long-term — he thinks for years. And Dale-trader — minutes and hours. What happens in the end? Why Daeyl-trader in 98% of cases does not win anything, and in 80% of cases — loses everything to a penny? And why is a long-term investor comes to a completely different result? What is the magic?

And in the laws of the market, in the laws of the economy.

On the side of the long-term investor (a reasonable investor, as Starina Graham would say) the economy itself plays. If he just bought (for his money, naturally — no shoulder) «a decent company» (not excellent — but simply normal — generating profit, and with a normal P / E coefficient, in general, not some kind of test))) then after Significant time such a company will necessarily cost more. Just because she earns money every year.

At the short time interval, the share price can fluctuate in plus and in minus — but on a long section — statistics on the side of our «reasonable investor». Add a portfolio a little diversification — and voila. Losing money to him is quite difficult.

And what about our «Toropy» speculator? And it is very difficult for him. After all, he does not «float through the» market economy «, as a reasonable long-term investor. After all, I «take me yes put» profits right today — well, the region is tomorrow. So he has to count not on the laws of the economy, but only on its extraordinary intuition and insight. Statistics show that in 98% of cases this calculation is not justified.

Moreover, after all, there are also insulatory «sharks», large speculators that play their predatory games. They manipulate the market in their own interests and often mix all the cards with unfortunate small speculators.

Our peaceful long-term investor cannot become their victim — he will calmly relocate all this foul in his papers. But Dale-trader … A rare real speculator is able to resist not to take a shoulder. For example, I have not seen such this one)) or a person quickly tie with active speculation, or be sure to work with his shoulder. Earnings otherwise it hurts «kopeck» — it becomes not interesting.

Well, we talk about the clear «watershed» — when everything is clear — the Dale-trader for the terminal is sitting all day, but a reasonable investor is invested for years. But after all, the life is — she is richer than this is the «procrusteo bed».

So I’m a little about life and talk about my correspondence with commentators here. On a pair of examples.

The example is the first. Polymetal.

He took him at the end of last year and replenished a little. Middle I have — 1632.

In good moments, the Polymetal recently leaving above 1700 — if anyone did not follow. Sorry speculators have already managed to sell it three times and buy. That they are speculators — such is their nervous work.

Me commentators threw questions.

At first: «Why don’t you sell — you can already fix the profit?»

Then: «Why not sell, he falls»?

And I gave a simple answer to this for a long time, but I’m not too lazy to repeat — well, I’m not a speculator. I have no strength, and nerves, and the ability are all these movements to recoup. I have an understanding that Polymetal will grow, along with the price of gold (and most likely on silver and platinum) at the end of this year (the maximum is next). It grows very significantly. Percent of 40-50. For this I bought it — to get a significant profit. When the share price is around 2300 — I will begin to think about fixing the part of the profits. Buying it, I understood that on the way to 2300, the price comes off many times and up, and down — but I knew in advance that I would not twitch — if the money would be money, I will dope with drawdowns. For loyalty to me, the polymetal should be encouraged by dividends))

Everything. Simple logic for a simple investor with planning horizon in years and without ambitions to catch all market movements.

In this logic, I’m sure one hundred percent. On the horizon of several years, gold and silver mines, bringing profits today, cannot not rise in price in the world, where they print money and scatter them from the helicopter))

And how many commentators are nervous because of the cheap gold — the mind does not comprehend. And it is not even clear — what is the primary, chicken or egg? All news channels «for investors» are full of information that exactly what kind of action should rise in price or cheaper next week. Is it because people are interested in? Or the channels impose people such interests so that trade is more active ???

Here, I put your hand on the heart, — I don’t care anything so weakly as the share price next week. This is a ripple on the water guys. I would say what will be on the market in a year, and even better — after five))

An example of the second. CPIF FPR.

He returned to him as soon as Trump announced that he would give power without excesses.

Average 2900 — very unsuccessfully entered.

The same story as with a polymetal — after a powerful growth, people began to jump out of the Foundation as soon as drawdown began. And okay, if it comes to speculators — it is also necessary, as mentioned above — they have such a nervous work)) But if you are an investor, climbed into the foundation. Your prerequisites did not change. Biden soon gives a gingerbread. Where are you jumping then? Why? And the answer is simple — «because it falls.» So he is not a bamboo to grow all the time))) I especially pleased the comment, «the Foundation falls at the same speed with which Ros». Attach the screen as an answer.

At the same time, the most remarkable — the entire previous growth is instantly forgotten. It is instantly forgotten that there were previously few days in a row. Really — planning horizon one day and memory, respectively, like fish-minute fish.

But for the reason «Foundation for a couple of days fell by three or five percent» — this is just an illustration of a short planning horizon. «I do not want to know that there in the future of the year — once fell in two days, it means that everything is bad paper.»

It seems that most people are simply not ready to wait. Buffett writes about the transition of money to patient — apparently, patient minority.

And this is what is noteworthy.

Remember in an excellent cartoon about Shrek was such a moment when Shrek and Fiona went to the parents of Fiona in the Thip Kingdom? There I asked every minute asked «already arrived? Have not come yet? Well, when will we finally come? «. All viewers seemed very funny so impatient in the cartoon. And the most interesting thing — after all, it was not necessary to explain to anyone from the audience why such an impatient behavior is extremely infantile — it is clear and obvious to everyone.

So why buying stocks very often people begin to behave exactly the same and wait for results by sure now ???

And one more interesting moment — when it comes to sitting on a diet — people without any problems show the wonders of «patience» — can postpone the beginning of this event to infinity, even the proverb is «diet always begins tomorrow))) and a trip to The elderly parents are also postponed without any problems — here, too, the planning horizons are immediately moving away, although they could have been less and less on these issues. And in investment — let’s think for years ahead to become