Portfolio for 40 million Norilskiel, Polymetal and difficult solutions25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл
«Only one will remain at the end …».
(c) k / f «Highlander»
Readers of a channel telegram or those who follow the controversy in the comments in the course, and for the rest in the two words «brief content of the previous series».
On the second March, the number of good people writing and calling me to tell me that the situation in Norilsk Nickel is not at all such a working character, as it seems to be critical mass. People living in Norilsk said that they were seeping bad rumors with the most serious flooding of mines, which will have distant consequences for the Norilsk Nickel business for many years.
People did not possess completely reliable information — everything was at the level of leaked rumors. However, the second side was very felt in this situation — the company itself.
In the company — and this is one of the largest companies in the country, on a second! — One of the best country PR services works. People are professionals in their business.
After all, they should understand — if the company did not give his vision by the market exciting for the obvious issues:
A) a clear and detailed explanation of everything that happens
B) a clear forecast for the cost of repair and repair time
C) a clear forecast for losses in terms of production
If the answers to these questions do not give PR service NIPN, then instead of press releases from the company, the market will begin to eat rumors.
And began to torment me — believing that in Nickel, not stupid people work, — as far as the case is that they are ready to put up with panic rumors, but nothing in response can not say ???
From such bad reflections, I turned to the conclusion that it is better until the moment when the picture does not find clarity, completely exit the position of Nickel. Over the evening session of the second March, approximately 23,800, in principle, even recorded a profit on this position, managed to earn about one and a half million, although it did not plan to exit.
Eeeh … silence sadness, silent. Sold — the heart was bleeding. My favorite paper was ((«I closed her eyes, drowning in tears, my kiss froze on her lips»
In general, this situation resembles a biblical storing story. History, it always repeats — only then in the form of a farce. So I — got vague warnings. At first did not believe. Then strain. Dustiful panic. I warned everyone, who was able to do it, that in my opinion — a flood is coming. Gathered the belongings and went in horror on the ark)))
After the speech of the Potanina of the third March, the situation on the mines began to emerge only a little clearer — it became clear that the problem was really serious. Potanan himself said that she would have a «material character» — this means, will have an impact on the production volumes of the company, on the business as a whole. How great will be such an impact — he did not give evaluation. The Ninth Martha Company promises to «stabilize» the situation. My congratulations to the press service, which found such a streamlined wording. It sounds optimistic, and in fact it does not bear any information. «Stabilize» — this may mean anything at all. From the stable work of mines, to a stable Kirdyka, reliable, like a Swiss watch. And in the middle, for example, the stable flow of water, the floating mines is stronger and stronger.
The numbers of possible losses that are now sounded with analysts — 1-1.5 billion dollars — are based on the assumption that the company will be able to restore the work of mines in a couple of months. I did not see clearly confirming these optimistic terms for restoring the work of flooded mines in the speech of the same Potanin, for example.
So for me at the moment the situation still looks uncertain. I think that you should look at carefully. To enter Norilsk Nickel, of course, it is necessary — the company operates a unique field, which will bring fabric revenues in the coming years.
But at what price to enter — it becomes a big question.
In the most dramatic turn of the events, Norilsk can slow down the production for several years at ten-thirty percent. This can completely change the financial indicators. If, in addition to this, the company will deal with giant project modernization projects — financial indicators can be completely dull. And dividends — too.
And this — I emphasize — for the years. In this case, I am ready to take the shares of Nickel in this case — and wait for distant prospects. But it is necessary to understand that in this case the price must be very revised.
In general, we will monitor the situation and think over the entry point — both above the price and over time.
Well, with a suddenly released cache what to do was understandable, the polymetal was still sold inexpensively. So I once again showed the «miracles» of diversification — I scored the full crust of the polymetal.
Well, we assume that Polymetal is a diversification — between gold and silver))
By the way, Polymetal reported in 2020. The report is excellent. Clean debt has decreased. Net profit increased to a record. Of those unpleasant moments — the mining of silver asked — but no one is perfect. Dividends in the area of 0.86 dollars per share shine. The report is good — but the shares he will not return to life — only the price of gold will raise them, it is also clear. So while we enjoy dividends, and we are waiting for the inevitable — when gold will rise in price))
You understand — it was impossible to buy only polymetal. Even for me it is somehow too — therefore
As you know, our authorities are struggling with the increase in food prices. It must be admitted — the authorities were not attended by this problem. World food prices in January 2021 reached a maximum for almost seven years (this was said to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization). In this race price, is quite obvious, it is better to be on the side of the counter, where prices are prescribed.
So I purchased shares of the best food producer in Russia and I am going to further significantly increase this position. This is not a rocket, here and without political factors too rapid growth is not foreseen and if the price of food is too much — again the price of «sugar and oil» is curled by a registered decree. That’s just a smooth and inevitable rise of Rusagro seemed without any ceiling. The company’s new dividend policy also looks like an additional attractive factor.
This year, the company has good growth factors: the completion of the cycle of large capeps, good world prices for food, a new dividend policy. And the fact that this year there is hope for a complete redemption of Agro-Belogoria (a major producer of pork, 20% of which Rusagro has already acquired earlier) is just a cherry on the cake — when this happens, Rusagro will become a pork producer number 1 in the country.
Well, the two other purchases remained so much — but also because good companies — let’s and about them a few words, especially since they also reported for difficult 2020 years — and they read very well.
RusHydro issued record volumes of electricity in absolute and relative figures and megawatts most of all over the story, and the largest energy market in Russia is the largest. The net loss dropped, Ebitda rose — beauty, and only. Dividends can approximately compile 6.8% of the current stock price.
At the same time, the plans for RusHydro Napoleonic — profit they plan to increase all the following years literally «not by day, and by the hour», so that by 2025 this very profit will double. For such a gigantic company, these plans are more than ambitious. Since they are going to support the state in this beginnings to their financing — I would express my moderate optimism about this.
The old anecdote is remembered here about how Ukrainian village hired a neighbor to score a pig. Neighbor, a man strong and prominent, went to a huge hog in the barn, closed the door behind him and from the barn for a long time the incredible sounds of struggle, moans, sounds of terrible blows and piggy squeamies were long. When all finally sacing out of the barn came out a tired neighbor in torn clothes. His mistress asks: «Well sho? Lib? » And he answers her with pride «Well, to let NE challenge … but the face of Nabov Dobriche.»
I think so with RusHydro — the profit can, and they will not increase by 2025. But in trying to do it — can very well succeed.
So brought the position on RusHydro to 2 million. I take part in doubling as much forces))
Interrao is even more interesting. Revenue and net profit fell a little — but not so much for no better year.
At the same time, the company is still profitable and also as RusHydro cherishes «Funny Plans.» In general, Interrao — has long stepped over the scale of the production of electric and thermal energy — there is energy engineering (for example — the production of high-tech turbines, including, by the way — for RusHydro), and engineering, and international electricity and many other activities.
Due to the accumulated serious monetary pillow, the company’s growth potential is available in several directions —
(1) Building new capacities (the company announced plans to focus mainly in this direction) — not only electrical and heat generation — but also the capacity for the production of turbines, for example.
(2) Absorption of other electro-generating companies. It immediately recalled the autumn stir, when the rumor was raised that the interrao would absorb Enel and Unipro. In the fall, rumors were refuted. But there is no smoke without fire. UNIPRO recently denoted readiness for sale. Judging by the behavior of Enel with shareholders — she only about selling and thinks — after such a «Kulbit» hardly believe that they are going to work for many years on the market.
(3) Evolutionary development of the current business
What is certainly frustrating in the issuer — an extremely greedy dividend policy. 3.5% promised this year is most likely an exemplary landmark and the following years. For power engineers — this is somehow unusual and even straight. On the other hand, the guys are going to energetically develop — they need money. Let’s give them a chance and see what they will succeed. — It is possible that neither shareholders will make