Portfolio for 40 million global trends and Russian stocks.25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл
«War Plan will show»
(c) folk wisdom
I sit, rubbing the sweaty handms, waiting for money from the sale of another piece of your long-suffering real estate.
And then many commentators are reproached for windiness and impermanence. Even the speculators sometimes will call (well, at least not a fan der)) and rightly, the same, which sin is to hide.
So I, by the way, and I am thinking up on the Path of Correction. Consciously buy papers that do not necessarily have significant profits during months. And even this year does not have to take off. Not in this idea. But I want to create a sort of «styling ridge» in the portfolio, which will exist on a permanent, long-term basis, to bring dividends and grow, not quickly, but inexorably, year after year. So that growth is predetermined by the time itself, the development of the global economy, its global trends.
In fact, expand that red angle in the portfolio, where the shares are completely unrecognized. Until now, there were only Norilsk and Nizhnekamskneftekhim, for reasons, which have already spoken in detail on the pages of other articles. In a nutshell — they are engaged in businesses for which the future. Norilskel supplies the metals necessary for electric vehicles. NKNX — supplies polymers and synthetic rubbers that are consumed in a huge amount and the demand for which is constantly growing. Such companies are absolutely not visible «ceiling» for growth. Not in the short perspective, namely in the long-term.
What other companies should this «Areopag» have to replenish? To answer this question for a start, you need to ask yourself another: what global trends are the most strong in the world?
In first place, I would definitely put
What do all these numbers mean?
How do I know it, you ask? Yes, from statistics! The World Bank regularly publishes information on the number of people living below the indicator of the global level of poverty. This level is constantly increasing — now — just above 2 dollars a day. So, the number of people living below this economic threshold is steadily decreasing in the world. Despite the fact that the total number of population is growing rapidly. You don’t need to be Einstein to guess what the money will spend money, finally earned instead of two dollars a day of the whole three — he will definitely arrange a banquet for this occasion and buy himself instead of just a cup of rice cup with chicken, and even pork. Well, when the number of people moving from rice on meat is measured by millions — we have increased water consumption. Everything is simple — on the production of one kilogram of meat it is necessary to spend several kilograms of grain. Which should be watering with water. Yes, and a pig, a cow and even a chicken — all of them drink water too. All — the circle closed.
If the country had a company that was incorprating Baikal or Yenisei — I would buy her shares without looking at the price tag.
BY THE WAY. Do you think I exaggerate the value of water? Then a small story for doubters in the values of the driver. Have you heard about GERD? Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam? The dam of the great revival of Ethiopia. You may hear about it, as about the cause of a large war, which has broken down in Africa.
Ethiopia completes the largest dam in Africa on the River Blue Neal. After the completion of the dam, Egypt may lose a huge amount of fresh water in Nile, and as a result — decline in agriculture in Egypt and energy in the Assuan HPP. Egypt demands from Ethiopia to slow and unhurriedly filling the reservoir of the new dam (so that the water is enough for everything). The scatter of the filling time is from three years (as Ethiopia wants) to fifteen years old (as Egypt is dreaming), but Ethiopia and so long waited for her complete «miracle of the world» to postpone the nationwide festivities and exports of cheap electricity to neighboring countries.
Negotiations have been going for several years and seemed to be born. At the moment, Egypt has passed as the last argument to the war and demonstrative bringing to the combat readiness of its aviation for possible blows on the dam (which a whole state with incredible labor was built almost 10 years).
So I repeat — if there was a company in the country, the company’s outgoing Baikal or Yenisei — I would buy her shares without looking at the price tag. But there is no such company in our market.
And what is? Water is full of water in the country, but how to invest in stocks to enjoy to the maximum full of this wonderful advantage?
We have already figured out above that the main thing is that fresh water is consumed —
Our old favorite comes to mind immediately
Instructed by the new ideas of the Government on price regulation and restrictions on the export of Rusagro already and dividends is thinking to cut.
The company’s management states that new government management initiatives will cost the company approximately 1-2 billion rubles lost profits next year (depending on how far the government goes). One or two billion. Not deadly. But shareholders are hurt.
But I would say that, taking into account the global trend, these Siececond regulatory tensions and possible reductions in dividend plans do not mean nothing — Rusagro is seen by a worthy candidate not just in the portfolio, but you can say — «in the safe.» To «buy and hold», as they like real fanatics of this strategy))
Due to the specifics of the Russian stock market, where the second serious food producer, with its own land bank, civilized joint-stock management (
But there is also the second side of our water resources — energy
And here, speaking of global trends, we smoothly go to a very interesting, but not at all unequivocal company, on the one hand, the advantageous beneficiary at once many global trends, and on the other, which is a very controversial object for investments. How already guessed the insightful reader, then it will be about
The company is really at the junction of several global trends, which has long been attracted by my attention. But it has several serious «birthplates», I would not even call them directly disadvantages — rather features, because of which I treated with great care to take this company to the portfolio.
Let’s be in order.
RusHydro obviously wins from rich water resources in Russia.
RusHydro wins from population growth in the world — due to the growth of energy consumption.
RusHydro wins from trend to «green energy»
In addition to major «trend» winns — there are «simple human joys»:
RusHydro completed the last CHP, for which the mechanism of guaranteed return of investments was not applied. That is, the program of modernization of thermal power plants in the Far Eastern Federal District will now be held on the terms of guaranteed payback and will bring RusHydro guaranteed profit
All this seems to say that you have to take your hands in your hands and run to buy RusGydro’s shares right now and «on the whole kitlet.» And what confuses it?
These are these subsidies and were the subject of my difficult reflections. If they are removed — the company’s economic indicators will not be at all rainbow and it will become completely dumb, even despite all global trends.
BUT. I thought. And why would this suddenly these subsidies be removed in our calculations? Here we had quite difficult years — and the pandemic visited us, and sanctions and other horrors. In short — you know «no money, but you hold on.» The state in every way tightened the belt — even retirement age raised. But on subsidies for RusHydro, even in these difficult years, the money was found.
What should an investor say about this? That the construction of power plants and the development of the energy sector has a very high state priority, and the state-owned company engaged in this business will always receive their subsidies.
What conclusions does it lead to? The chances of a sharp increase in RusHydro are small, in my opinion. But for stable and many years of development — practically guaranteed. At the same time, the dividend policy adopted in the company makes it possible to feel very comfortable to feel minority. In my opinion, RusHydro is now reminded now not the noticeful «rocket», which is like to remember in the stock market, and rather a comfortable car from the train where you are slow and without any unnecessary bustle to come to your goal — to become