Portfolio for 40 million elephant then I did not notice

25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«Too good to be true.»

(c) George Bernard Shaw

In anticipation of money and the right time for purchasing in a hundred times an ancient look at the market. And so much of the whole appetizing — well, straight eyes scatter … That’s just expensive, as much as horror.

Well, what to do, you will say, I must understand: from the March fall, everything has long been redeemed, the market on the halaes, vaccines are actively implemented all over the world and everyone is waiting for the Bidenovskaya package of help Almost two trillion. Lepot and fooling air))

Hehe …

Remember at Charles Perp Tale about Sleeping Beauty? There, too, this is so complacently beginning … Only one evil sorceress for general fun was invited.

So, at least a revey of market review showed that one powerful evil sorceress was not invited to restore the stock market. And I myself was surprised when I saw how powerful.

What if I tell you now that in the Russian Federation there is a huge state-owned monopolist, working in the oil sphere, and it is still trading at the level of almost the same as in March 2020 — well, don’t you be surprised?

Of course, the word «monopolist» I immediately destroyed all the intrigue, and the insightful reader had already guessed — yes, we are talking about Transneft. Shares of this company can still be purchased at the prices of March 2020.

As if, from the moment of the ripping, Panic from Pandemic did not pass almost a whole year, as if there were no multiple vaccines, as if there was no good deal with OPEC. As if time stopped. As in the most enchanted Castle of Sleeping Beauty))

I look at the preferred shares of Transneft — while it only trusts the state — and I see in them until only one drawback for the retail investor is an uncomfortable price for the lot. Split, of course, has long called. And otherwise it turns out that among oil companies

In general, the situation is understandable — the volume of oil and petroleum products in 2020 swung on the pipes are not particularly large. In 2021, the situation improves slowly. Investors in sadness. Here are the shares and do not grow. BUT! After all, all these arguments are applied to the entire oil sector. Only transneft lagged behind the overall recovery. In theory — now you should catch up with ahead.

I looked at the analysts of my beloved — it seems to me that transneft should be restored by a good pace — consensus forecast for investment + 32.22%. And you agree, it does not look like some unhealthy optimism — why don’t you grow up in 30% of the company’s shares in Russia, which transports 84% ​​of oil produced in Russia? After all, everyone is waiting for this year to restore the oil market, and transneft shares are «stuck» at the position of March 2020 — that is, at all at the bottom. If you are full of optimists thinking that there is where to grow and other oil companies (I will not show your finger) with P / E under 20, then there is a transneft, with the current «low base», God ordered it to grow well?

What underwater stones are seen in this story?

The company under sanctions — because of this fell out of MSCI (actually — in many ways due to sanctions and trades so cheap). From all this attraction of it for funds is low.

Secondly, the lot is uncomfortable expensive — for individuals, the action is completely «inappropriate» — in our country an average account on the stock exchange is less than one transneft share. Split has long been abandoned, and the fact that the company has not yet done it is a huge minus its management.

The History of Dividends is bad. But it seems to be a certainty about this part (knock on the tree).

Total — it seems to be the risks for growth — and on whose purchases it should grow — it is not clear. Funds will not go, but to buy it expensive to physics. But contrary to this conclusion, I still want to try to buy it — in a relatively small quantity. There is a feeling that it can be done well on it. As Comrade, Stalin «other writers I don’t have for you» — so here — there is no other monopolist for the transportation of almost all oil in the country.

In this regard, the old film is remembered with a «strong nut 3» — the one where in the plot robbed gold from the Bank of the Fed. There, when the robbers burst into the gold storage in Manhattan, one of them says that «Fort Nox is a beautiful picture for tourists, and almost all gold is stored here.» So with the transportation of oil: Sovcomflot is also a beautiful picture for tourists and lovers of the fleet. And actually large-scale transportation is carried out not in beautiful ships of Sovkomflot, but in boring pipelines of Transneft. You just imagine — 84% of the entire oil produced in the country.

So guys, it seems to me — here without options. When oil goes to recover anywhere and transneft — grows together with the oil market. And make someone