Polymetal.25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл
«Gold still serves as the main payment facility in the world (…) Gold is always taken to pay.»
(C) Alan Greenspan (Executive head of the US Federal Reserve, speech in 1999)
In November of this year, Polymetal plans to appear on the public to the public, an updated strategy and a presentation for investors. In my plan of articles for the channel at the same time, it was planned to publish a Polymetal — so to speak to illuminate an informational reason, and to disassemble the new strategy of the company.
But, as they say, «Want to embroider God — tell him about your plans»))
In the comments, there are very many questions about the company Polymetal and it has become clear that with the publication of the article on the issuer before November is slow.
If readers want to talk about the polymetal now — so be.
Such interest in Polymetal is now caused by a significant drop in its shares.
Since the beginning of the year, the company’s shares lost about 25% of the cost, decreasing from the region of 1800 rubles almost up to 1,300 rubles.
Let’s deal with what is happening.
To thoughtfully understand the situation, we need to clarify for themselves a few moments:
What happens with the price of gold?
What happens to Polymetal?
What happens with the price of the company Polymetal?
You noticed that there is no topic about the price of silver in the list of questions? She, in my opinion, to the price of the share of the company Polymetal has an indirect value — the company’s profits affect, but the price of the influence has almost no effect (here is such a paradox). But casual we will touch this topic.
Let’s start with the price of gold.
Why did the price of gold fell?
Let’s list several reasons called analysts.
I immediately want to emphasize —
The arguments of analysts in favor of falling the price of gold:
Gold — Favorite Many Investors «Safe Harbor». It is believed that it is especially eagerly in gold, when fear reigns on the market. And when optimism — investors choose more risky and high-yield assets (the so-called «risk appetite» in investors increases).
For this reason
Investment in gold was invested by fearing inflation, including due to the continued continuation of QE.
Without going into details are the main reasons for the fall in the gold price listed by the analysts.
Do you agree with them?
I am only partly with very large reservations.
For its part, I would say that the picture will be completely different if we look at the «real» gold market — the market of the physical metal.
And what about the real gold — the one that is metallic and cold?
O! There everything is why it is completely different.
Yes, everything is very simple —
Especially strongly doubt the inhabitants of Germany — they genetically remember the Weimar Republic and the prices of billions for loaf of bread. And remember that only gold always retains the price. And we can assume that millions of Germans and Americans this year voted in their money on the referendum on «Do you believe in the reduction of inflation?»
They do not believe. And buy gold.
I also do not believe in the early termination of inflation — and keep the shares of the polymetal))
And why actually I do not believe in the ability of the Fed to curb inflation, you ask?
Yes, very simple.
First, the Fed can not stop entering the world with money
Secondly, the Fed, protruding the final lender can not increase interest rates substantially
So on the issue of gold prices — I think, in some nearby period we will see that gold will grow.
It is impossible to print money infinitely and not to have inflation — Actually, the United States has already been convinced of this, the inflation of the US power is recognized at 5%, and citizens are observed at least 10%. (And buy gold coins in record quantities).
But gold is long under pressure from verbal interventions and is now lagging behind many other goods, losing powerful inflation — this either cannot be historically long.
Although, make forecasts about the price of gold — still a little debrief. At the end of last year, when the printing machines worked «in all» and almost all analysts predicted the growth of gold to new heights against the background of growing inflation, I happened to read the opinion of one expert, whose name I (for his shad) can not remember. So he said: «Gold is such a mystical substance that is not subject to rational thinking. If all logic suggests that the price should grow, and all experts agree in this opinion — gold easily may fall in price. » Very often, I remember these words now))
With the price of gold figured out,
Recently issued reporting for the first half of 2021.
The report is not bad and not good — medium corresponding to expectations.
revenue increased by 12%;
net profit amounted to $ 419 million (increased by 11%);
a little decreased production — by 1%;
What does it go to the company?
If briefly — there is a period of high chaps.
What does this mean for investors? What
The main question is whether the money is correct?
Let’s just see how and what the company invests money.
First of all I would noted
Now the break-even level of the polymetal is about 1,200 dollars per ounce. So, at a price of gold on an exchange of $ 1800, for example, Polymetal earns $ 600 with an oz. And will earn — 700 dollars.
Or in a different way, too, rudely — from 2023 the Polymetal should produce 1.7 million ounces. Let through AGMK-2 will pass only half of the ore. Approximately 100 dollars per ounce this will give extra — $ 85 million per year.
As you can see — the significance of AGMK-2 for the results of the Polymetal business is difficult to overestimate.
What else goes from high chaps?
There are large capital costs at the Nezhdanskoye deposit and Kutyne.
Expedited the implementation of the projects of the prey and the forecast (
Total: the company is now «tightened the belt» and invested money in development. As far as this can be estimated now — attachments are promising and should give good financial results in a year — one and a half.
Let us turn to the price of the company’s shares.
Here is sad. Shares gathered Anti-Bingo.
What do we see in the end?
In my opinion, we see the sale of one of the most reliable and profitable companies in the country. Moreover, the protective counterclature company is the gold miner, and even with the diversification of the metal portfolio.
It is interesting that at the moment, at the price of the shares of the polymetal of 1330 rubles — almost all analysts have already agreed with me.
It is necessary to understand that on a short period of action can go even lower — no one has canceled panic sales. But in the strategic perspective of the reasons for the further fall of the shares personally I do not see.
In principle, I have a polymetal portfolio as much as I wanted to see it for comfortable diversification. But if the current sale does not stop until the receipt of dividends — I will not resist, I will buy some more. I really looks interesting. It’s nice when you can buy a company that mining gold, silver, platinum and copper — at such a time when inflation grows every day this is a good way to become