«Patricia’s portfolio» — an inappropriate answer to modern challenges

24 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«What was, then will be; And what was done, then it will be done and there is nothing new under the sun «


Buffett in his annual message to shareholders when he congratulated them with the onset of the twenty-first century, ironically reported that in this twenty-first century Berkshire Hatweave enters the assets portfolio, which at that time included such «high-tech wonders» as: the production of bricks, production of baguettes , and publishing business.

He ironed over the twenty-first century at all and over the universal mania of the purchase of shares of high-tech companies, in particular. It was a very bold statement and for some looked at the beginning of possible senile dementia …

But just a few months crashed the crisis of the Dotcomms. And Buffett once again confirmed that his old brains and his «old» investments work better than newcomer analysts and «Haipovaya» companies.

Not that I deliberately tried to imitate «Oracle from Omaha» in the conservatism of investments — especially since it has put a serious share of capital in EPL, but somehow it happened when I carefully looked at my portfolio after today … I suddenly understood — By and large, such a portfolio could not belong to a modern investor from the 21st century with a mobile application in hand.

Here more painting is drawn:

… Mark Portcius Grakhch, standing on the balcony of his villa on the shore of Tiber, with the most satisfied view rubbed his hands: today the ship arrived from Fraceia and the manager who sailed on it for the report confirmed — the gold and silver mines purchased in Macedonia and Frakia work without interruptions.

Still in the morning, when Mark Portcius, he stayed at the table for breakfast, he was submitted to a hollow table with a report on the nearest Latifundia. The report was pleased with the eye — the grains were preparing a lot, the cattle turned around and multiplied, the Maslodavilni worked without a breather, and the oil prices took off so highly that Caesar himself was forced to promise Plebs to curb the dorned prices, which is special prayers Zeus.

Walked blessed 0021 from the Nativity of Christ …

Since then, 2000 years have passed …

But little has changed))

Well, of course, a lot has changed.

On the mines now slaves are not working — people give some salary.

To obtain a report from the mines, you do not need to drive the ship — just look at the smartphone screen.

By the way, it is also possible to buy a piece of these most mines using a smartphone.

Well, the most «tasty» — we give us the opportunity to buy mines, latifunds and other oils «pieces».

On the whole mine somehow immediately accumulate not from hand. But even child wisdom says that «an elephant is best to eat slices.» So the main thing to start — to buy your gold mine for a piece))

Here you will laugh — but it seems to me that in the direction of socialism, joint-stock companies have advanced us more than 1917. Seriously. With a pair of reservations, of course, but nevertheless.

After all, we promised under socialism?

«Everything according to work.»

So he is your chance.


Worked? Was the salary? Purple part per shares and get your piece of the gold mine. Or a piece of oil.

Or a piece of Rosneft.

Or a piece of national treasure — Gazprom, then you mean.

And about the reservations — about «everyone according to work» — the reservations, of course there. I see them two.

First, «someone» received a big piece not commensurate with his work. There is such. What to argue. But how does this affect us with you? How does it prevent us from now to get your piece? Yes, no This «someone» he does not interfere with us and make money for our family, our piece is already quite in labor.

Secondly, which does not disclose the principle of «everyone according to work» — there is another important nuance. In fact, not only in labor. Also — to everyone by the mind. This fragment is very often falling out of the «puzzle». People have enough hard work on making money. But there is not enough mind to save them and invest. Moreover, no one instilled investment culture from childhood.

I have seen a large number of successful entrepreneurs of the «middle hand.» They had quite decent money — in the amount of hundreds of thousands of dollars in the apogee of their development. So what? And nothing. Many in the end are at the broken trough. At best, with large apartments and large cottages. No shares and significant savings. Everything passes like sand between your fingers.

More often this effect of «sand between the fingers» refers to people receiving salary. I think there is a problem in the psychological effect — the salary is taken «from the outside.» It appears by itself every month twice on the card. I do not mean that a person does not work — I mean that he has no thought — what if the flow runs out? Or will it be two times less?

The worker seems to be that if the problem begins at the Romashkaya LLC, he will simply quit and go to work on LLC «Vasilek». And the salary will also come to the card. He does not perceive global problems. And two of them are immediately — the worker himself makes every day. Yes, in addition, the level of payment in the state is constantly systemically reduced. And only system solutions help against system problems. And the only salvation is a systematic investment. We simply do not have another way out. Any other model of behavior is the path to poverty.

Okay, on the subject of unemployment and the level of payment, I prepare a separate article. This topic is not a couple of lines.

Let’s go back to the Patricia Portfolio.

Why is it formed exactly? How did it happen that in two thousand years it seems to be that it is best to invest in the old good digging of gold from the ground and pressing the oil from the grains?

After all, it seems to have such promising topics on the market — Haytech, Biotek, Game-Development, Development of AI, Space Tourism … Yes, there is no other than khaipov.

What is so bored in investing? Why is such a clear imbalance in the side of food and gold in the portfolio?

In fact, such a portfolio is a response to two challenges that I am now seen on the market.

The threat of significant inflation.

Bubble in stock market.

How should react to both of these threats to the portfolio?

Food inflation recently is ahead of the remaining inflation indicators. Thus, Rusagro in the portfolio should not simply dampen inflation, but to perform it by the beneficiary, earn money on the advanced increase in food prices around the world (and in Russia in particular).

Interestingly, in the government, it seems, some kind of ill-wisher Rusagro sits. From April 1, it was necessary to cancel the limitations of prices for sugar and oil — so no — extended. The people himself no longer knows how to thank for such wonderful «gifts.» People do not get tired of joking over the «genius», who imagined the folk food basket from sugar with butter — «That Masliza with sugar can be drunk, then you will joy the sugar with butter.»

To be honest — I’m shocked from such a set of products to limit prices. Here you imagine that you are sitting in the government and really decided to support the poor. What products will come to your head to fix prices for them? Bread, potatoes, milk, pasta, cereals, stew? Well, maybe sugar with sunflower oil will enter the list. But so that neither bread, nor cereals, nor milk, no meat — but only sugar and sunflower oil. This is on a joke of some kind. It looks so that manufacturers of all other products had good lobbyists — and only Rusagro turned out to be defenseless. On him and showed «care of poor».

Despite any price limitations, Rusagro remains a highly profitable manufacturer of food, and price limitations — a clearly temporary measure, seriously in terms of the company’s indicators, will not be able to affect.

As for the alternative to food producers — some experts offer to keep the promotion of retailers in the portfolio precisely as insurance against inflation.

It seems to me that such a purchase will not work in Russia for many times by the argument to me — so that this logic worked as a retailer should keep revenue at the level of inflation growth, and this is possible only if the population’s income will allow such indicators.

We also, with falling income of the population, retailers will face a drop of revenues. Despite the rise in food prices — people will be forced to change consumer habits — replacing costly foods for cheaper alternatives. Roughly speaking — instead of sausages will buy potatoes.

Therefore, insurance against inflation is a food producer. Food is becoming more expensive — the manufacturer sells it more expensive. That’s how it is right. Without offensive.

The second insurance against inflation in the portfolio is the minider of gold and silver — polymetal. It all has been said in detail here.

For new readers in a nutshell. Precious metals are classic inflation insurance. Logic is simple — when the governments of all countries compete «who will print no longer any money», the old good bars of gold and silver, produced very «limited circulation» begin to rise. For those who want to find out how much they start to rise — I advise you to google the «Weimar Republic.»

Why in the portfolio of gold miners, and not gold ETF, for example? It seems to me that it is better to have a cow than milk warehouse. Moreover, if the rise in price of gold will be postponed for a while — it is much more pleasant to sit all this time in the shares of the polymetal and get a good dividend yield.

Inflation figured out.

And now about the most dramatic — bubble in stock market. What should happen to the Patricia portfolio in case of dramatic events in the stock market — the fall in indexes for tens of percent and the flight of investors from the promoted stories?


And then there are two answers to the cache and gold.

What happens when the crowd runs from his favorite blowing actions to gold? Well, this is a question for a third grader — gold will grow very much.

And what will happen in this case with the shares of the gold miner, which produces millions of ounces of this very much higher than the cost of gas?

I will not write an answer)) let the insightful reader himself try to guess))

After all, only a very devotable reader is worthy to become