NCSP — quiet harbor for your money

24 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«Taman is the most bad town of all seaside cities of Russia»

(c) M.Yu. Lermontov. «Hero of our time».

It is clear that the hero of Mikhail Yurevich was for something to be unspoken by Taman. But now at the shareholders of the NCSP grounds for such a bad attitude towards this geographic point are no less.

Well, we were a little ride ahead.

Let’s start about the business of NCSP.

Many financial bloggers love to compare the NCSP with a paid bridge, making on this basis the conclusion about the «non-optimability» of the port model. Similarity, of course there. And business, indeed, is simple, and profit, of course, guaranteed.

It’s like that. Only there are their problems.

Developing a metaphor with the bridge: expand the bridge — the case is not trivial. So the wonders of the development from business do not have to wait. But to build a different axle bridge — can. And it is not difficult to figure out that then the profit from your bridge will fall sharply. (((

Actually, it is with such a problem of NCSP now and encountered closely. And immediately «for all fronts».

Well, let’s try in order about the company NMTP and its current troubles and problems.

NCSP — Novorossiysk Sea Trade Port — contrary to the name «Novorossiysk», includes a group of companies that are present not only on the Black Sea, but also in the Baltic.

The NCTP Group of Companies includes the two largest Russian ports — Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and Primorsk in the Baltic, as well as Port Baltiysk in the Kaliningrad region.

NMTP — the third port operator of Europe.

NCSP is the leader of the Russian Stevedoring Market in terms of cargo turnover.

As for the «largest Russian port Primorsk» — the statement was taken from the official website of the company, so if someone seemed doubtful — please add questions in the press service of the NCSP)))

The basis of the company’s business (especially in the Black Sea) — transshipment of bulk cargo (primarily oil and petroleum products). Especially strongly, such an emphasis was expressed after the sale of a group of the grain terminal, which took place in 2019.

Actually, the focus on oil and bulk loads is clear — the main shareholder of the NMTP — Transneft, would be the opposite of it, if with this owner of the NCSP, would specialize in container transportation))

However, such an emphasis on oil cargo gave itself to know in 2020. On the one hand, international trade has decreased in general. On the other hand, OPEC reduced oil production. And the synergistic effect of these two factors on the NCSP economy was very strong. NUMTP net profit fell by 92% in 202. My regular readers know how much I love this indicator. So I don’t like this figure in the report. But it is quite obvious that this fall was temporary.

Another thing is that just in such a year, like 2020, a large diversification of cargo traffic could give NCSP best results. But still would not save from serious drawdown — all world foreign economic activity was in a not better form.

But ahead of the economic recovery, 2020 is behind. Vaccines actively laying the way to a bright future and the port will work for all. Things are good? Do you need to «pull a port on the whole kitlet» until he rose? After all, the company has a very interesting, profitable and stable (by the way, we note — rates for services in solid currency, as they complain about it for such a disgrace in the FAS clients — it cannot be overcome, but taking into account the main shareholder of Transneft — I would I did not try to complain more).

So what about the prospects? Is everything cloudless?

I recently had a discussion with one of my respected commentators — I shared my doubts about the prospects for NMTP. Actually, with this, the article began — about the paid bridge and risks that the second …

As we all know, next to the NCSP (the one that is not a group of companies, and the port itself is in Novorossiysk) build port Taman. Here is your grandmother and Yuriev day. The port of Taman is still positioned as «dry cargo» — that is, the oil terminal there should not be in an idea. With this in mind, the Competition of the NCTP, he creates not very terrible.

BUT! Today there is no bulk terminal — and tomorrow will be built. This time. And two — even the fact that Taman will take part of the non-bulk cargo — this is completely a blow to the turns and rates of the NCSP. Pay attention — both at rates. Previously, consider the monopoly was, as if the FAS would close the eyes. And now — will want and will be lucky in Taman, if you take the bets.

So Taman is a factor for NMTP uniquely bad and more — system, long-term.

We look at the north. And there at all trouble. Well, that is, for the country — beauty. And for Primorsk and Baltiysk — horror horror.

Built there in an incredible size of the Ust-Luga port, which is going to make no less than the «largest port in Europe». And some media already will be ashamed and in the world the palm of the championship of the Ust-Luga.

I’ll tell you so much. As a patriot — just can just be happy for our new gigantic port.

And as the shareholder of the NCSP is trying to estimate — where is he cargo to gain a «biggest port in Europe»?

Well takes away all cargo traffic from the Baltic Limitrophs (there and so much remains).

Well, the transit will go from China — this is a growing direction, but so far it is swinging — not one year will pass.

And where to take the rest?

And it turns out in my calculations that the loading of Ust-Luga to some extent takes place of cargo traffic from the northern branches of the NMTP — at Baltiysk and Primorsk. To what extent takes away? Well, it is impossible to calculate — at least — not with my humanitarian education.

So I get such a «road map» on the shares of NCSP for yourself. There are no hurry no — the company is quite healthy, now after a pandemic will increase the turnover and the stock course must be increasing. But strategically — for years ahead — it looks not very promising acquisition in connection with the growing competition from the «young» ports. So I think on the horizon from six months to one and a half years — after the restoration of the shares — change them on something else, where competition is lower. So that no competitors interfere with rich and become