25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«Not needy, Volodyky, a car.»

(C) k / f «Boomer 2»

Wise man — Paul Samuelson. The Nobel Prize in the economy received, and obviously — not in vain. Much of economics knew. This wise man is about investing such wonderful words: «

And after all, the correct, most likely, argued Samuelson — it does not matter to indulge in such a solid and responsible business as an investment.

But still I want to talk a bit in the article today about the place and role of Azart in investments. We are people where we are without emotion. It doesn’t seem to me that everything is so simple and definitely, as it sets out the floor Samuelson. Especially —

As for gambling investments, we will speak in the article, by the way, only about stocks. Even the side of futures will not look. And at all, we will not touch the full exotic — investments in the works of art, for example, or investments in land, where there is enough azart — with a good coherent circumstances, the notorious crazy «Ikers» are made in the years.

But we will talk only about ordinary and understandable promotions.

Although, today we will talk about the promotions, including not the easiest to understand.

Well, let’s start in order.

Recent years I have long been devoting a stock market monitoring. Almost exclusively — the Russian market. I read a lot of reports, public analytics and private channels.

It would seem — my portfolio should be extremely creative and full of all advanced ideas — after all, even if I myself cannot generate any thoughts at all, I just had to read about dozens of interesting investment ideas. So what is difficult — take and implement them in practice.

But if you see what the portfolio came at the moment, then he is the opposite, as the poet would say «

No creative — for two thirds purchased a savings with Gazprom. Whether for the sake of this year the analyst read, the right word))

Why did it happen?

Yes, very simple.

Since the times of Ecclesiast know — «

I read a lot of ideas. But I read the critics of these ideas.

And than creative investment idea, the greater income, it potentially promises — the greater risk it is potentially carrying. Unfortunately, this basic truth is the ratio of risk and profitability — not to refute. I am not ready for rejohaggly risk for potentially high yield.

So it turns out that among the great diversity of ideas past over the past couple of years — caution did not allow to participate in the overwhelming majority.

What is the «idea» at all?

The idea that the market is:

either underestimates the company’s price in the price,

either does not see that inevitably (or with very high probability) the fact of the future should cause the company’s reassessment.

Let’s see for clarity to look at the «old» ideas that have already been shot on the market. «Old» — this does not mean necessarily already exhausted all the potential, but there are in view of the ideas that have already manifested themselves in fact, a significant increase in the company.

I will briefly describe the idea and comment on whether it participated in it and if not — what risks scared.


Yandex. 2019-2020

I participated in this idea — I bought Yandex in the spring of 2020 to the entire cutlets and sold at the end of the summer 2020.

Tinkoff. 2020.

I did not participate in this idea and missed a huge height. Pandemic risks and disorderly issuance of Tinkov loans — decided that the Tinkov’s Pandemic Wave may have problems with collaboration of debts.

Black Metallurgists of the Russian Federation (Severstal, NLMK, MMK). 2020-2021

I did not participate in this idea. (9% on Severstal shares are not serious). It was found that for March 2021, the rise in steel prices was already played and next will go to the decline. Calculated the risks of falling prices too high. Such a scenario at the beginning of Spring 2021 predicted most analysts. It’s funny — now analysts also forecast this decline in spring 2022))

Mechel. Prefs. 2021.

I did not participate in this idea — I found it too risky investment in the company on the verge of survival.

Faizer. 2020.

I participated in this idea.

Gazprom. Autumn 2020.

I participated in this idea.

Gazprom. Summer 2021.

I participated in this idea.

Probably enough examples from the past, there is still not a historical canal))

Generalized for me the situation looks like this:

I am comfortable to participate in the idea when:

The idea concerns a large company,

consistently paying dividends,

which bankruptcy is not exactly threatened,

Which is not a factor that can lead to business collapse.

Quite a lot of requirements, I agree)) Therefore, there were not so many suitable ideas as I would like.

If you look above — it can be noted that in Gazprom — I am responsible for such requirements — I entered twice. Why? Because the potential is visible, not visible big risks — you can invest.

That is, I would like comfort in a situation if the idea «does not shoot.» To even in such a situation, the prospects for capital loss were seen.

In the case of Gazprom or Ferizer, such a «parachute» was dividends and a stable position of the company. In the case of a madman — there was no such sense of security.

Therefore, Mechel, constantly «breathable to incense» is not the issuer where I am ready to invest. Yes, it is now clear that this deprived me of potentially huge profits. But in the market at all, it is always best to be visible in the rearview mirror)) risk and yield combined — and when it is already known that the winning scenario has been implemented (that is, the option «profitability», and not the «risk» option) then you can easily argue about the correctness of investments In the zombie company Mechel.

This is called — the error of the survivor. Personally, I do not regret that I did not invested in Mechel, because the same caution did not allow me to invest in Virgin Galaxies, for example. And people who are experiencing about «missed benefitness» usually imagine that all their rates would win and turned into a «money tree». But in case of risky investments, the result may be reverse — the carriage will turn into a pumpkin))

However, from general reasoning and historical examples, let’s go through today, we will take a look at current ideas — in the air — and estimate, as far as they are safe and promising.

After all, literally today under the legs are also full of ideas for all tastes.

Let’s give a couple of examples.

For those who prefer the blue in their hands:


Yes, Apsayd is no longer such a fabulous as before, but still, if you think about: Gazprom’s findirector neatly said the other day that 36 rubles seem to be a minimum of payments in 22nd. Even if this forecast is as a foundation, then in summer 2022 Gazprom should cost at least 350+ rubles.

It is so to speak — a completely conservative idea for a year for quite careful.

Not particularly high profits, but the probability of losses is quite minimal.

If we talk about me — that’s exactly such an idea corresponds to my careful nature and pleased me))

For a little more bold — a little more risky ideas.



The price of gold is low.

Dividends autumn he announced two times lower than investors’ expectations.

Capex increased.

And now the dividend gap, like «Cherry on the cake».

That’s just, as you know, the darker hour — before dawn.

Polymetal is now trading at that price, below which even forecasts are difficult to find))

And at this price looks like a good purchase for a long-term — inflation is not done anywhere, the Fed so far the verbal interventions scares more investors than inflation))

AGMK 2 next year will be launched — and the cost of the ounce of gold from the polymetal should be reduced by $ 100.

Capes rose not just like that — the polymetal tries to replace the falling volumes of silver production faster and promises an accelerated pace to launch one of the largest silver deposits in the world — «forecast».

So on the horizon of one and a half years the idea of investing in the polymetal at today’s prices looks quite promising.


What I like this idea is a profitable company (even very profitable). It is not necessary, as in the case of Misel, wait, whether your bet will play, fearing the company’s bankruptcy.

How is this idea of ​​bad — with all its profitability interrao pays very low dividends. Sit for several years in position and receive 3-4% of dividends, waiting for the weather by the Sea — this is not enough for each patience. Moreover, patience may never be rewarded — there is such a chance too. This year, for example, the company has spent a decent share of Cuba on the purchase of construction assets. Let’s say gently — this purchase has not added anything to shareholders other than disappointment. If the company will lower the residue of the cube on such turbid acquisitions — it may be found out that you were in vain in these shares and received 3% of dividends instead of 10%. It will be hurt.

Taking into account the foregoing, I personally cannot decide for myself, will I restore the position in interrao.

Well, let’s a little about ideas for the most bold.


Many analysts predict the growth of shares of the company for dozens percent. Personally, this optimism is clear to me, when the company has a business scale decrease, and I want to stay away from it. But I, for example, is also incomprehensible to the current increase in OVK shares (which is selling some cars), however, the fact is a fact — the OWK is growing. And there were people who were able to predict this growth. Now these people have earned tens of percent in total. Perhaps — will also be with kiwi? Or maybe not. Are you ready to risk? ))

Russian Aquaculture

Great idea to buy promotions?

Excellent — in the sense is very promising.

But the risky is the same.

In 2015, the death of fish seriously handled the company’s business. Now biological safety in the company is worth a much higher level, but the risks of investment in such a relatively small business should be understood on this example. It is scary when at one moment half of your business can «float up the belly» together with the deceased fish in the cages.

I look at the company for more than a year. And I do not even decide to buy. And in meanwhile, everything grows and grows.

But even though the idea did not look forward, the idea does not look like his own. Although it is still too risky for me.

All listed ideas are shown simply to illustrate the ideas of varying degrees of riskiness, in no case as investment recommendations, naturally.

We will not illustrate a «red zone» at all — with the ideas of buying a conditional tal, waiting for the Renaissance of the Chinese market))

Turning to the outputs

On the market at any time there are many investment ideas for every taste.

One of the most important criteria for selecting these ideas to your portfolio is your risk-profile. Your personal readiness to risk capital and put up with its possible losses. Miracles do not happen — safer investments are less profitable. Only you decide what is more important for you — to increase or save capital? And only you decide how much you evaluate your nerves.

I was closer calm and boring investments. Investments in reliable companies that are firmly on their feet, receive stable profits and pay predictable dividends. From such companies will not wait for crazy growth, but they should not be upset you.

Someone may seem dull — for him the market is ready to give financial products «Ignorable». In the end, everyone has his own way to become