Investments in what real estate will be relevant for many more years?25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл
«I would have had such a cat, I would, maybe not marrying never»
(C) M / f «Vacations in Prostokvashino»
And I would have a couple of apartments from me with young years old — in one of which I would live, and I passed another — I would never be interested in investments))
It has long been known that the beginning of the investment path of almost any of our person is the idea of buying odnushku and pass it.
Moreover, it is not necessary to think that a person who exactly would like to dispose of (or ordered) with his personal savings knows nothing about more advanced financial instruments. Maybe it is quite theoretically financially visible.
But, as I have long heard a familiar financier: «
I will say for myself — from 22 years old I really liked the idea of becoming an injury and lease tiny odnushki at the metro to numerous conquerors of the capital. Why from 22 years old, you ask? Probably because it was from this age that the apartment was removed himself.
And reading the books of Kiyosaki only supported me in these aspirations — Robert constantly emphasized how it is cool and win-win — buy apartments and houses, passing them to tenants, and to buy all new and new profitable real estate objects to the resulting cash flow.
However, when the years have passed and I finally had money for investment, the study of the issue with rental apartments has shown that in folk dreams and books Kiyosaki, everything is a bit simplified.
Probably even greatly simplified. In the book everything was somehow more smooth than in real life. And the rental rate was high, and the mortgage rate is low. And tenants paid on time. And they did not leave suddenly from the apartment leaving the ruin and staring to the plumbing. Well, all as in folk wisdom «smoothly on paper, but forgot about ravines.»
But after listening to the stories of practitioners — the people who have passed the apartments (and not one year) I had a lot of enthusiasm. Moreover, that’s what is interesting — the people who passed the apartments — they did not dissuade me from this wonderful case. They themselves have long been involved in this business and simply grumbled a little on the current difficulties. Just talked about some nuances. Well, the figures are real showed — how much goes to the content of the apartment, on cosmetic and minor repairs, which from time to time have to do for taxes (for those who decide to leave the shadow). But from the side — a fresh look — their stories did not look very advertisably.
The picture was not so cheerful as in the books of Kiyosaki and folk fantasies. A lot of trouble. Income is not enough.
I listened to good people who pass apartments … and went to invest in other assets.
So did not come out of me an apartment order))
Now I suppose it may not be bad — many factors have been added especially in recent years, which not for the better change the yield of investments in the notorious «odnushki». And not only yield — also troubles.
Apartments very «helps» and the state that constantly «delays nuts» and the general state of our economy. What will eventually see the owners of apartments?
Communal payments are constantly growing (there is already a very essential part of the total cash flow from the apartment),
Taxes are collected more and more strictly (almost all acquaintances, renting apartments (speech about Moscow) give them officially).
The rental rate is actually not changing for many years (analysts argue about her «growth» or «fall» — but all this is within the error. In fact, rent a decent odnushki in the area for the third rings at the subway — how cost 35 thousand a month seven About years ago, it’s worth it. Only the price of this odnushka itself flew into heaven — «Thank you» to a preferential mortgage. As a result, the yield of putting it for rent is approaching 4% per annum.
It is necessary to search for a normal tenant «during the day with fire» — almost all people with normal income used the most preferential mortgage and pay for their apartment. Who remains to landlords? Will these «remaining» people with unstable income stably pay rent? Rhetorical questions.
However, still, real estate is good. Put on it in its investment portfolio Cross times and forever — somehow I would not want.
So I was born my thought — despite the disappointing picture with «odds» try to stroll in this article, what real estate I would like to see in the portfolio, for which why.
In my opinion,
Minus real estate compared to bonds — less liquidity
Next I will argue in the format of zpiphs and reit, because Investing in different types of real estate other than minor residential facilities to individuals is extremely difficult) High financial barrier is obvious that buying a warehouse complex, a supermarket room or a hotel may not be far from every investor).
In his arguments, I do not pretend to truth in the last instance — as I am not an expert in the field of real estate. On the other hand, Bole of ten years worked in the sphere with it closely related, so I have some idea about the subject.
Well, the most important thing is to be interesting to hear and the opinion of commentators on the development of the real estate market and its individual destinations in the future. Now the market is clearly experiencing huge changes — it is interesting what it is transformed.
We went, going through the types of real estate.
A) The solvent tenants took advantage of the preferential mortgage, and there will be a fight for the tenants remaining in the market.
B) the profit rate is low (the apartments are expensive, and the rental price is not large).
C) Falling income of the population and growing utility payments — these «scissors» from two sides will «cut» and without that low yield.
2.2. And what about
By the way, a small illustration of how business care online affects the owners of the premises. Twenty years ago, to have a tenant, the separation of the bank was considered an excellent key to a stable and prosperous life. Any bank — and have a tenant, the branch of Sberbank — it was at all a dream. And for several years ago, Sberbank began to reduce its branches. Moreover, in a very tough form — with those owners of premises that do not want to provide huge Sberbank discounts do not prolong the lease agreements. Among my clients I encountered in a few years already with two histories. As far as I understand, it is very massive. Sber goes online — and the owners of the premises go to losses.
But everything is not so simple. Not one online is limited to progress. We also threaten the unmanned trucks in the near future. Yes, and economical (electric or even hydrogen). What will it mean?
This will mean that warehouses close to the cities (which are now highly appreciated due to the small logistics «shoulder») will be cheaper — since they will begin to successfully compete warehouses located much further — at a significant distance from the cities.
So investments in warehouse real estate safe — on the horizon at ten years, for example — do not look at all.
By the way, the total trouble is almost all the contracts in the real estate market in the time of galloping inflation — that is, just in our times with you: the fact that good tenants enter into contracts for a long time for many years. The rental indexation is not always covered by inflation, and when it covers — most often, only official. This is a separate headache of the property owner. For example, yesterday 8% per annum in rubles was excellent income, and he concluded a ten-year contract with a tenant under these conditions. But what will happen tomorrow? Maybe tomorrow OFZ will give 9%?
What remains in the end? What kind of real estate should successfully survive the rapid changes occurring in the world and continue to bring the owner income in new conditions?
It seems to me that the choice of this type of real estate is now a very difficult thing.
It turns out that it is necessary:
First, choose the type of real estate associated with the type of business not translated in online — and this is not so many types of business in our time.
Secondly, to predict the steady demand in this type of business in the conditions of a rapidly changing economy.
Personally, I do not see the funds (zpifkov) who would answer these requirements in Russia, since all funds are trying to specialize in more or less «mass» products — Street retail (most often), shopping center, warehouse real estate.
In the West, where Reits provide a wider choice of «narrow specializations» — I would noted by the company invested in real estate under:
Nursing homes (life expectancy is growing and you will not hesitate in online care)
Computing centers (cloud computing are increasingly gaining popularity, and the machines for them must stand somewhere).
That is, we are talking about purely «niche» products, which for one or another can not be «crushed» with a new reality — with its online, remote work and other innovations.
This is how it comes out, looking around the «safe» market, as it seems to many, investments in the real estate that surprises and surprises are incorporated by an investor in this market at each angle. But, some bolt does not stop. Let’s hope that everything will be fine and real estate will help them become