How long to keep shares?

24 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«I need a corporal. Take a post until you are killed or I will find someone better. «

(c) k / f «Star landing»

The question made in the title issue is continuous authority — Warren Buffett gives the answer — ideally keep forever.

True, Buffett himself deals with his recent actions refutes its principle. Yes, and leads a serious theoretical basis for this.

Just recently, the «grandfather of all investors» on his speech showed lists of twenty companies with the world’s largest capitalization for 2021 and 1989. And what do we see in these lists? No company, which was included in the top 20 largest capitalization in 1989, did not remain there in 30 years. No … Think about.

We are not talking about once one-day firms — the same giant world brands. Nevertheless, no company could be held at Olympus for thirty years.

At the view of Buffetta’s grandfather — this means that we all should raise the legs together, to recognize their powerlessness to determine which company will flourish and carry their money exclusively into index funds. Including — in Berkshire Hatave, by itself)))

Well, it seems to me that at part of the conclusions grandfather «stretches the owl to the globe» and caresses the facts under the answer that invented in advance. Let’s look at the introductory data slightly.

So, what do we have on Grandparents?

Thirty years ago there was the most bubble of the Japanese economy. Naturally, most companies in the twenty are Japanese, including very overvalued (now the boom of the American economy is a big hello to investors in Tesla).

And what would happen if you invested in the index? Why indices possess such a mystical habit — at long intervals grow almost all the time, although companies, as we see, do not always grow?

Yes, everything is simple — the deft guys are the compilers of these most indices — take and throw out the company’s index that they do not like. Yes, so everything is simple. Hand agility and no fraud)))

So the «index» S & P 500 or the «index» of Mosbierzhi is every year something else. Today is not at all what was five or ten years ago. Therefore, when someone with a smart species declares you — «You will not be able to choose shares that the index will exceed the index on the horizon for 30 years,» you can our investors, to answer the question: «And what shares will enter index after 30 years? » How can you compete with what ??? Because it is unknown that we will exceed tomorrow, and even more so after 30 years))) not very honest competition is obtained. But if we are talking about surpassing the index changing the shares from time to time — here the prospects are quite good.

I specifically put a statement from the movie «Star Taunt» to the epigraph so that people looked at the promotions at the right angle. Even the Capral commander honestly says — «you will be in this position until I find someone better.» So with shares. The action is not homeland and not a member of the family. If paper found better — it is necessary to change, immediately and without regret. The inefficient firm is not worthy of your investment. Moreover, shifting your money from the shares of an ineffective enterprise in stock effectively is a couple of clicks.

This is the essence of globalization.


What is globalization shows one simple example: if earlier in the city A and in the city there were two firms. And each worked, making a profit. Firm A — 10% per year. And firm b — 5% per year.

Previously, everything went neither Shalko nor Valko. Everyone lived for years and generations and in the mustache did not blow.

And now investors see this inefficiency, all sell paper firms b and buy promotions and bonds of the company A. Firm A receives excess capital and absorbs the company B.

Now — or you consolidate the market — or the market consolidates you. «The animal ruin of capitalism», as they would say in the eighties in the program «time»)))

Especially clearly such a strategy — a constant mathematical comparison of the profitability of its shares on cash flow coming from them, Oleg Klochenok preaches, he is a private investor with great experience and, as I understand it, I came to the ideology of the comparison in general only cash flow from investment.

I am not yet ready for such a dry concept — you always want a huge development prospects from the company (and, accordingly, large course gains of the value of shares).

Therefore, for myself I understand the following:

In Russia, another tax benefit for long-term ownership of securities is added to these reasoning. This is also a factor that should be taken into account for its calculations.

Regarding the timing of ownership of shares — the main thing is, it seems to me, not to enter extremes.

The first extreme is speculators. Dei-traders and scalpers, not by night be remembered)) These «own» paper minutes and seconds. Well, what can you say — people are doomed to defeat.

There is both the second extremes — those whom I call: fanatics from the sect «bought and keep». They forget that there are «cyclical» promotions and cyclical types of business, where, as they say, «God himself ordered» from time to time to fix profits.

These people are not doomed to the loss, but they are like gardeners who forget to cut the branches and even sometimes — collect harvest. So they do not lose — but they will not win so much, as they could at a more creative approach.

But if you replace your good shares on time to replace your good stocks (if you define correctly, of course) — it seems to me, the fastest way to become