Do I need to be afraid of Gazprom?

25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«All ran — and I ran»

(C) k / f «Gentlemen of Good luck»

Not the first time I meet at the Internet of the Internet such a thought: since now (last months), everything as one analysts advise to buy stocks of Gazprom — it means there is some kind of trick. «Well, you can not advise something from every iron» — about this way to reason our person.

Our, because, the person is used to that good — it is not for everyone. It must be from the rear porch and though. And if the advertisement is very suspicious of each iron …

I, knowing our people, have long been talking: if you need to vaccinate everyone, then the last thing, make vaccinations for free and advertise them everywhere. No! So with our people, porridge are not welded!

Here is the last fall, individual people were vaccinated for large relations before the beginning of a nationwide vaccination campaign and paid for three hundred thousand rubles. So it was necessary to be a state and adopt this scheme. Only prices are slowly omitted. You look — to this autumn, they would have been given to the whole country and the budget would be replenished. And if you advertise and free to prick — so about sixty percent of vaccinated us only dream and remains.

Well, back to Gazprom.

I want to reassure supporters of the theory of conspiracy.

Relax, friends.

No villains analysts do not lure you maliciously in Gazprom’s shares.

Everything is easier.


Think by yourself — it is difficult for an analyst. Ungrateful this and very grave work — the future to guess and predict. Very often, analysts get a finger into the sky.

Some are particularly smart analysts — wave less often. But still, if we look at the statistics of the accuracy of analytical forecasts (on the same site of RBC, for example), then with horror, it is usual that the percentage of certain forecasts even in the most advanced analytical teams on the market — just above sixty percent. It is the best. There is nothing to talk about the worst even talk.

And then suddenly — Baba — Gazprom.

What is Gazprom? And then Gazprom, that in Gazprom now you can make a practically guaranteed correct forecast. Can the analyst neglected such a chance — to improve its statistics from forecasts in the «apple» (the most statisticians, which in the very good case does not exceed sixty-five percent?) Of course not — analysts guys are not stupid))

And why this situation has developed that you can make a practically unmistakable forecast?

Let’s see.

There is in English such a wisdom «Future in the past» is called. Future in the past, if literally translate. We all passed her at school. But it turns out such designs not only in linguistics arise, but also in the economy.

What I mean?

Gazprom has already successfully finished half of 2021. According to the new formula for calculating dividends for the first quarter, about eight rubles of dividends per share has already earned. The report for the second quarter is not yet, but gas prices were excellent and in the second quarter. So it is easy to extrapolate eight rubles of dividends based on the results of the second quarter.

The third and fourth quarter — with semi-empty gas storage facilities in Europe — this is for Gazprom winnings anyway. Either maintaining very high prices (as in the first quarter). Either the launch of the Northern Flow 2 and earnings on huge volumes — not much worse than the earnings than in the first quarters.

Total — draws about 32 rubles of dividends per share.

Moreover, 16 of these 32 rubles has already been earned. Gazprom distributes 50% of net profit by dividends. That is, that from the already earned 16 rubles, at least part of the part in the dividends in the third or fourth quarter, Gazprom should get a net loss (then the total net profit for the year will decrease into the amount of loss in the third or fourth quarter).

This is just unreal. The risks of falling prices for gas in the second half of the year is (although not significant), but it is not enough to unprofitable for Gazprom levels.

From here it turns out that analysts that advise you to buy stocks Gazprom, simply act as «captain’s evidence.»

And why are there so many articles about Gazprom? Why is it really heard from each iron? So it’s my people’s wealth, and not the third echelon — a popular topic))

People who are surprised by a change in sentiment in Gazprom shares simply do not want to see the obvious fact: there are very many important factors in Gazprom in recent times, which were not even six months ago.

It would be surprising, just if after such changes, which for these six months occurred in the economic situation of the company, investors would not change the relationship to its shares.

Let’s see.

Six months ago, the only clear factor in favor of Gazprom was a cold winter in Europe.

I will not go far for an example — I myself gladly bought Gazprom on the October drawdown and almost all sprunged with good profit in December — I was afraid of American sanctions on SP 2.

But now

Completion of the Northern Flow 2 (almost inevitable)

Hot summer in Europe (gas consumption rolls)

gas prices at maxima

Decision on the distribution of 50% of profits for dividends

After such powerful factors, the price and attractiveness of Gazprom shares radically changed. You should not search here the theory of conspiracy, as Freud spoke — «sometimes dreams, it’s just dreams»))

And Gazprom shares, with their growth potential and high predicted dividend yield — is just a good tool to become a real millionaire))