25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«Cognot stuck — the whole bird is the abyss»

(C) folk wisdom

In the comments and personal correspondence, readers asked to tell about my plans for Alibaba. Well, «voice of the people — voice of God» — I repeat how I see the situation on Alibaba, and what actions plan to do in connection with this situation.

To begin with, let’s spend a small excursion in history — let’s see what the company Alibaba, which place in the economy of China (and in the world economy) it takes, with what problems it is faced and, accordingly, what is its prospects.




The company is most widely known as the leading Internet commerce operator (more than half of the online trade in China and a significant share in the world), but the business of Alibaba is far from being limited to this: there is own payment system, one of the world’s largest infrastructures for cloud computing, and much Much more. Moreover, these businesses are not startups to which Ali spends money earned on online trading, and profit centers — for example, only cloud computing last year brought an Alibaba more than $ 1.75 billion dollars.


In the autumn of 2020, the Chinese government suspended the Aypio subsidiary of Alibaba — Ant Group (owning the Alipay payments system).

It is believed that the ban on IPIO was sanctioned by the highest leadership of the PRC, and was equally as a consequence of the non-political speeches of Jack Ma (criticized the «General of the Party») and the consequence of the concerns of the Chinese authorities about the possible chaos in the retail lending market.

With this problem, Ali figured out in the spring of 2021, factorily paying an unprecedented penalty in world history (about $ 2.79 billion) and publicly demonstrating readiness to follow the instructions of party leaders in public.

However, as you know, «the trouble does not come alone.» The Government of China is not a joke who was alarmed by the arrogant behavior of Jack Ma, decided once and forever show a large business «Who is the owner’s house.»

Since the spring of 2021, the Chinese authorities almost every month «please» investors are all new and new initiatives for market regulation, focusing on high-tech business.

Under the blows of the power initiatives, the online education market is practical, and the online games market (which were in the government newspaper loudly likened by destructive drugs) stiffed.

In fact, China neglected by its big advantage — the stability of the rules of the game, which investors of the whole world loved. When the rules of the game change almost every month in the country — investors begin nervous tick, and they want to stay away from such a country.

In fact, all those initiatives that the Chinese authorities issued from the beginning of the year are not so terrible for the market as a whole (we will not talk about online education, he just signed a sentence). That’s just better all these initiatives were reduced to one package and introduced simultaneously. And «Cutting the tail at ten techniques» — created such a long period of turbulence in the Chinese market, which remains only to the hands of dilute.

«He fired in his leg» — they say when a person does something in harm to himself, here China, it seems that the machine gun attached to his leg and does not want to remove the finger from the trigger.

It looks particularly interesting when China’s authorities are trying to reassure investors with one hand — and the Vice-Chairman of the Commission for Regulatting China’s Securities Regulatory

Well, how do investors calm down? And the funny thing is that nothing particularly dramatic in the new rules for Alibaba, for example, no. But all investors here are this weekly / monthly change of the rules of the game nervings and many makes to stay away from China away.

That is, summing up an overview of problems — Ali had real problems in November 2020. After payment of the fine in the spring of 2021, there are no complaints about China’s complaints to Alibaba. There is a big list of incomprehensible new regulations that scare investors, and investors sell Chinese shares in a row — including Alibabi.

The company itself does not have any problems — and that confirmation of its excellent financial statements — business flourishes and develops, earns huge money, all big with each quarter.

That is, after March 2021, Alibaba falls no for the reasons for the deterioration of the Company’s position, and:

Together with the whole market of China, from which investors frightened instability run.

By virtue of the exaggerated reaction of investors on new regulatory effects of the authorities, it is assumed that it can spoil the business of Ali in the future, but no confirmation of this.

Does it mean that you need to buy shares of Alibaba, since they fell so much without any reason?

But at all is not a fact.

Recently, the telegram wrote about Kiwi and the word remembered the words of Buffeta,

And most importantly — Ali is a promotion of growth. We buy such an action because we hope that it will rise in price. What is the short-term forecast for Ali? Not particularly beautiful. There is no interest in investors to the asset. Here in the long-term — in the interval of several years — the situation may change. But it seems that the Chinese authorities first must stop updating the rules of the game with such an unreasonable speed. Then investors calm down. And only then there will be an increase. Somehow personally, in less than a year of waiting for a «bright future» in Ali’s promotions, it is not believed — maybe it will be very longer. Another thing is that there are no special doubts that the future is not there at the moment there is no — the company’s indicators are excellent.

This is what personally confuses me most investing in the growth of growth. See what happens. If you chose a good dividend company (with excellent financial indicators), then you are indifferent to the attitude towards it of other investors — let the paper be cheap — you calmly get your profits in the form of dividends.

But if you chose an excellent financial indicators a company that does not pay dividends — and Ali is a great example — to have some profit you should wait for the fact that this company «Excellent» will see the rest of investors in the market and accelerate the price of stocks . So far it will not happen — you will sit at the broken trough. It is not very pleasant to depend on the rest of the market — so I personally like the dividend companies more.

Separately, let’s go through such a topic as «averaging». Ali now cheaper hard — so maybe a good idea to averaged?

What is there to say here? Averaging is a strange idea by itself, although popular in the market.

In my opinion, this is natural self-deception. Unwillingness to admit that there is a problem, or a desire to fix it as soon as possible.

It is necessary to understand a simple thing — the newest money you will make in stocks that are presented, you could also add to other stocks and «averaged» the result is not in this position, but in the account as a whole.

Money must be investing in the most promising company, and follow the common account.

That is, if you just have a desire to buy Ali shares — then free will. But if you are going to invest out there just because they have previously invested, and now this position in the drawdown is mathematically illogical. It is logical to invest in the most promising stocks on the market — and so averaged your overall result in the account.

There is only one problem — psychological. If you are now in line to another company, then Ali will continue to «call you the eyes of» drawdown. «And if you averaged Ali — you can quickly correct this red line. But here it is, as they say,» do you checkers or go «?))

Buffett said no wonder, «who is not ready for 50% drawdown — should not invest in stock.» It seems that the turn has come to test themselves for those who put in Alibabi))

I have a simple example of Ali in drawdown by 38%. For the money drawdown more than 2 million rubles. Also the eye is eye. But instead of averaging Ali with incomprehensible in terms of the prospects, I preferred to invest in an obvious and understandable idea — Gazprom, which is now plus three million shows.

Yes, the red line in the appendix did not disappear, but the overall result on the portfolio has improved. Of course, green lines in the appendix in the place of Ali will not be soon, but this is not a reason for the new money to invest — otherwise it will work out as in the epigraph: «Cognot stuck — the whole bird is abyss.» To drag new money to the position only because there are stuck old — illogical. It is logical to «leaving» — to look at the situation wider. Manage all of your account, not one of this position,

Alibaba is an excellent company. Profit gets, business develops, nothing company threatens. But the growth of shares can not see any years. So it is necessary to just psychologically to be ready for this — I bought a good company, but in a bad time. We must now gain patience and wait.

About conclusions, or, «What does this fairy tale teach»? I taught me that you need to listen to smart people — here Oleg Klochenka, for example. And more specifically?

First, investing in your country is still much more comfortable and clearer. I used to think that, for example, Klochenok does not invest abroad because it is not ready to read analytics in English. But now I believe that if I had owned in addition to English, I would not help me at all. To invest, you need to understand the country much more deeper than you can see on analytics and news reports, on what language and in what quantity you would not read them.

And secondly, I believe that investing in a company that does not pay dividends is not the best idea. And here, too, could not stuff their cones, but rely on the experience of other people.

Well, it was what concerned my personal conclusions. And now general conclusions on the article:

Alibaba is a huge company with very strong financial indicators, growing, prosperous and branched business.

The company at the moment there is no significant problems — the business flourishes and grows, the conflict with the authorities of China has been exhausted, but the shares fall and the fall in shares can continue even indefinite (perhaps a rather long time) period of time.

It is necessary to buy the company’s cheaned stocks now — to say it is difficult (usually, experts do not advise on the market «catch falling knives»), but to sell with a loss of the company’s shares that the business flourishes and beats records — exactly a strange decision.

Whether you choose for yourself the purchase of fallen shares of Alibaba with an eye on the distant perspective, or buy metallurgists, which are about to pay record dividends, I hope you will make your decision, guided by the company’s financial and production indicators, and not that «stocks sharply Faised «, or the fact that» it is necessary to averaged the unprofitable position. » Shares of companies with good indicators — this is a good choice for the future