About the most important thing about salary.25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл
«A honey (I don’t understand what a secret!) … honey — if there is, then it is not immediately»
(c) Boris Skod
Ordinary citizens and those citizens who are also investors, wages are interested in different points of view.
Ordinary salary citizens simply lively live. Although, if the salary is good, then they live on it quite intimidating))
And citizens who are also in part-time salary investors are disposed of much more creatively.
First, of course, the part of it spend it, not without it.
Secondly, part of the salary is saved. And the fact that it is possible to save — that is, the fact that from this salaries by the end of the month remains — thoughtfully invest.
But the salary investors are not only interested in their own.
That is, and a simple person questions of salaries are always interesting.
But the simple person is interesting for applied questions, for example, such: «What is such a salary at the traffic cop from the seventh floor, which park in the yard is a new bag?»
Or «Why the salary always ends as fast as Honey at Winnie Pooh?»
Or: «What is the salary of the neighbor Uncle Vasi? And why does he always ask for money «to salary?» And when uncle Vasi, in general, will finally be a salary. Because the money taken «before salary», he never gave «))
But the investor issues of salaries are interested in the macro level. So to speak — in a state of spending scale. At least — should be interested.
Well, since the investor’s salary issues should be interested in — we will not stand out, let’s ask. What is there in the country with salaries?
Let’s start in order. And to start in order, we will have to start not entirely with wages. Even not at all with wages. Let’s start with such a sad topic as
Interestingly, worldwide is one of the most important indicators of «health» of the economy —
Why is it so important? And why did we conversate the conversation like «for health» (about salary — about pleasant), but we continue about unemployment («for the rest,» it turns out about sad). What is the connection then?
Yes, the most direct connection. In a nutshell, it looks like that, I betray quite simply, so as not to spread the thought in the tree.
If there is unemployment in the country and it grows, then new jobs are not created in the country. And from this it follows that:
Economy at a decline (and this characteristic is the most objective, just work places are the most difficult to «draw»).
The economy on the decline — less taxes, less budget, less state expenses (well, it is at normal times when states do not print money at such speed as now)))
Less jobs — employees compete for those jobs that are salaries are not growing (why raise salary, if employees «beyond the fence» and so fully).
Salaries do not grow — consumer demand stagnates — the economy goes on to the bottom.
Accordingly, when unemployment falls — new jobs appear — the whole process is spinning in the opposite direction:
Companies are forced to compete for employees
Companies increase salary workers
Consumer demand increases in the country
Companies more earn
The state receives more taxes
PROFIT)) All in winning.
For our further reasoning, it is important to see the relationship between unemployment and wage growth. This relationship is, straight and immediate. You can not get anywhere from her.
Worker sells his work. An employee needs to eat. If it is not possible to sell your work right now — it is forced to sell my work cheap. That is, the growth of wages arises only when other employers (well, or a law on minimum payment are not treated with such extremes on the employer «Press»).
Why am I so pointed this attention? The fact is that
For comparison — in the US, the unemployment rate is now 6.2%, and it has decreased from 6.9% in October 2020.
In Spain, where the unemployment problem is sharply the unemployment rate at the moment 16.13% in the country and up to 40% in separate regions.
In Greece, the unemployment rate reaches 15.8%.
But back to our country. Of the 4.3 million unemployed only 1.3 million received unemployment benefits. Why so? Why did the rest for the manual did not go? Yes, the manual is «fat» that many did not work out it — it is obvious. Minimum allowance — 1500 rubles (not typo). Maximum — 12130 (for the first three months).
I feel honestly I can not understand one thing — if there is a mortgage minimum established by the state. And it is more than 1,500 rubles. What is in principle paid 1500 rubles ??? After all, it is officially recognized by the state — it is impossible to live for this amount. That is, I have a big doubt about survival on 12130, but the state itself recognizes the state itself — it is absolutely impossible to live.
Okay, God forbid, so that anyone from readers did not touch this trouble. We continue to study this phenomenon from academic positions.
So, our unemployment seems to be not very high. So should be all right with salaries? Once low unemployment — salaries should grow. Check this postulate?
And here is not. From the very first years, the restructuring of Western researchers of our labor market is amazing such a purely Russian phenomenon — poverty at full employment. Roughly speaking —
Check out comments, for example, to an article about Rostelecom -Creeders Rostelecom and their families write in the comments about the absence of wages indexing or about the lag of such indexation from real inflation.
A similar picture is not on one Rostelecom, but in many enterprises.
Moreover, it seems to me, «a blatant» picture with an allegedly missing unemployment in the country for two reasons:
The population does not apply to employment centers, since the benefits are extremely low (and real assistance with employment and less) and the meaning in such appeals does not see the population.
A huge number of jobs, the level of payment on which suggests that local frames cannot work on them (that is, jobs initially suggest the employment of migrant workers).
I will explain item 2. The janitor receiving 20 thousand rubles cannot be a resident of Moscow. He cannot have accommodation in Moscow, contain family, children, etc. This janitor simply does not have enough money for food, communal, children’s kindergarten, etc.
But — such a janitor can be a guest worker living in a hostel. Feeding out of the total boiler and sending a family to a distant homeland of 15 thousand of 20 earned.
So it turns out that vacancies seem to be much, and work with adequate payment on fact is not enough. And for the work that people have forced to stay while it makes it possible to contain a family.
Let’s submit a few results from the foregoing.
The illusion of low unemployment in the country is largely due to the specifics of our labor market with a large number of low-paid jobs, where the employment of local workers is not provided for and now municipal services are already organized by recruitment of employees to such positions from the CIS countries.
Unemployment statistics are distorted by the reluctance of citizens to register in the employment service due to the extremely low benefit and inefficiency of help in finding work.
The purchasing power of the population falls. Real disposable incomes of the population at least (according to official statistics) are 10% behind the level of 2013.
The growth of real salaries does not have to expect, since the real unemployment is higher than official and real changes for the better in this area are not visible.
For us, as investors, retail and builders follow from this, the issuers relying on the growth of income of the population — fall into the risk zone. Banks crediting the poor population can also be under pressure from non-payments or drop in demand.
Consider this by making your investments — because if you correctly choose shares for investments, even in a country where people earn less and less