A portfolio of 40 million CPIF FPR and a bubble on the market.24 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл
«… What do you think will come to the wheel, if I happened, in Moscow or will not come?»
(c) N.V. Gogol «Dead Souls»
Let’s talk about interesting. About global. About exciting.
About what? About money? Well, we are talking about money every time, and now we will talk not just about money, but about money. Global and nemereny. About billions.
Several topics I want to raise today, and one another is global. But they all look interrelated. If you are not too lazy to post a little about reasoning — I hope it will seem entertaining.
If we look at the American stock market, we will see that it was all over him for his long story.
First giant bubble
However, then the crowds of speculators broke down on the stock exchange in search of light money. Stock prices quickly broke away from fundamental indicators (
As a result, with a stock-in collapse, which broke up in black Thursday (October 24, 1929), the fact that we now know under the name
For a week, panic the market fell by 40%.
Banks began to bankrupt. The real sector has become a certain lending — enterprises began to close. Wave unemployment rolled around the country. That is, the worst thing happened —
15 years old people in the United States did not believe in promotions and investments. In fact — only the next generation again believed in financial instruments. Whole generation tragedy. Here is such a price of America paid for the first burst giant bubble on the stock exchange.
Second giant bubble
On March 10, 2000, the NASDAQ index closes with a drop of more than one and a half times. After a year, no two, nor through three he did not return to his former heights.
Experts say that until 2004, there were no more than 50% of companies registered in 2000 on NASDAQ in principle. They do not specify how much they felt well in 2004, those companies that have survived)))
Interestingly, scientists of economists who studied the crisis of the Dotcomms see the basic problem in that
Re-read the selected text above, please. You do not have a feeling that you could write about the skin about the tales right now and subscribe to every word? )))
To its top of 2000, Nasdaq returned in 2014. If you take into account inflation — then it fully recovered only in 2017.
Compare recovery time after the Great Depression — suspiciously similar periods. And degrees not fast.
Well, now about
This unimaginable «Burl-GUM» began to inflate in 2009. The Fed began the ownership program of assets — to begin 1.7 trillion dollars. At the time it seemed serious money. Now it is so, seeds))
Two magic letters — QE — Quantitative Easing — quantitative mitigation. What soften, is asked? Yes drop, knowing. Stolsters are trying to raise. In 2007-2008, the crisis sank. Mortgage. IN THE USA. There, the mortgage was given to anyone in the next. And they could not pay debts. It was necessary for whom it was necessary to go bankrupt — and the case with the end. So everything was in the old good times. But in the modern world they decided all this pleasure to extend. And they began to print money — bucks — in incredible quantities.
Just for understanding the scale of disaster — only when Obama new bucks appeared more than in the entire history of the United States to Obama. Here is such a «Weimar Republic» in American.
And why not visible inflation, you ask, if so much money in the economy has been thrown? And she is visible. On the S & P 500 chart. This is this crazy growth of American stocks — it is she, Rima — inflation.
This is not a shares rose — this dollar fell.
And now P / E is normal not 6-12 A 40-50. Well, these are those companies who have a profit at all.
And then from crazy money (according to their America, «helicopter») they do not know where to go — already and the shares of companies at all without profit are perfectly bought out. We have seen a similar story about the crisis of the Dotcomms above. So now also. Only even more fun — money drawn, even more.
And all the economists look very scary to it.
Because no one knows what will happen next. There are no examples of such a Vakhanlia, which is now going on in the US market, has not yet been in modern history.
Focus in what — the further printing of dollars is less efficient. An increasingly positive effect on the economy new trillions of the public holder provide such a trouble. But also to stop this flywheel is not very clear how it is possible.
Apparently — the end of this mega-bubble in the US market is somehow close.
As close to?
Here I believe that not tomorrow))
1.9 trillion units of «live water» Good Biden is preparing to pour into the economy — for some time just take a walk))
But what will happen when the bubble burst?
I have the following ideas.
In the light of reflection on the bubble in the global market — let’s a few words about our little — so to speak more than a local bubble.
According to ZPIF FPR. I, based on the foregoing, it seems to be correct to keep it until the Western Central Banks decide to «delay the nuts». As soon as they gather to finish with a soft credit policy — it will be a call to us to all at the exit — the time of magnitude favorable IPO is probably suitable for the end))
And before that, nothing more finewher than the IPFA FPR on the market is not visible. I was doing a fascinating exercise here at your leisure — I played a calculator in a difficult percentage.
I greatly recommend everyone. Fascinates. As they say — «This thing is more accurate than Faust Goethe»))
The rules of the game are very simple. Take a calculator. Drive the figure — the amount you have invested in the CPIF FPR. You dial to «multiply by 1.25» (about 25% per month the fund grows on average). After that, you press as many times how many months are you ready to suffer before you take the money.
Here, by such experiments, I found out that after 24 months 5 million rubles are transformed into a billion. From what was in some shock.