A portfolio for 40 million. Why sold Shares Lukoil and Atit?

24 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«Time to scatter stones, and time to collect stones»


Well, if you briefly answer the question made in the title — they themselves are to blame)) in principle, who wanted very briefly — you can not read further and an article)) Well, if you are interested in the details — arrange more comfortable, I will tell.


Trees do not grow to heaven

… And Lukoil in a pandemic — the more not grow, I will add my «seven kopecks» into the general piggy bank of wisdom.

As I wrote above — on sale LUKOIL himself, LUKOIL himself and to blame — an hour to such a level that the further continuation of its growth has become extremely unlikely.

The consensus forecast of my favorite analysts on the investment draws Lukoil about 2%.

But draws in Plus — it is, of course, well.

But in a year — this is, of course, not very good.

With all my well-known excerpt and angelic long-suffering, it seemed unbearable for a long time for a long time.

Moreover, to sweeten me this expectation LUKOIL gathered only a seven-percent dividend yield (and how did you want? Most recently we discussed forecasts by 9% of the dividends from LUKOIL, but against the background of the increased value of the share the same amounts of dividends in forecasts are now completely different Percentage profitable). That’s how. To stay in such conditions to stay in Lukoil, it was necessary to be a sectarian from frequently mentioned by me «bought and kept» — after all, the same Polymetal, for example, will give me the same 7% dividend yield, just also consensus forecast analysts It will be 38% to grow (which corresponds to and my expectations, we note modestly).

So it came out that with the beautiful company LUKOIL, my portfolio was spread. Will I look for a new entry point? Honestly — did not decide. On the one hand, I, as permanent readers know, do not treat Tesla-optimists who believes that tomorrow, electric car and oil tankers run through the streets will have to be passed into scrap metal.

Forecasts are much more realistic, which is 5-10 years old in Western countries and 15-25 in the rest of the world will dominate oil. So in the coming years from the point of view of strategy, oil workers in general and LUKOIL in particular, in my opinion, global problems are not threatened.

But at a shorter interval — this year, for example, oil is much higher than current values experts do not expect, fast victories over the pandemic do not expect, so that strong drivers for the growth of oilmen are not visible. For fall — too.

So there are no reasons for the entry on growth expectations, no reasons for entering falling. It is possible that the portfolio and LUKOIL will not be together again. Sorry — the company is good. But what to do? This is a business, baby, nothing personal (c)))

Let us turn to the second issuer, «rejected from the ship of our time» (c)

At and t

Well, everything is very simple and very sad. Why, actually these shares were in the portfolio?

Here is how it was. I sit like this in the fall, I look at the market and arguing.

Here is the company at and T — the oldest telecommunications holding in the world, one of the largest, executes orders of the government and the US Department of Defense (ie, bankruptcy — well, it does not threaten).

The dividend aristocrat — that is, more than 25 years increases every year payouts on dividends (well, they are not idiots, so that they have lost prestige to lose a quarter of a century? It means that there will be a diva to increase that they will not go anywhere, and then from the dividend aristocrats).

And at the same time — the price of shares — fell very low. But it does not boil me — see my logic above — bankruptcy does not threaten, dividends, thanks to such a fall — on anomalous for the USA level — 7% per annum. Well? Everything is clear — you need to take — an excellent replacement of bonds in the portfolio. And took.

Here I will make a lyrical retreat — a couple of months ago, reading the forum on AT and T shares, read the «smart» thought of one forumchanin — they say, whether he was the director at and t, he would have canceled dividends by a moment, paid debts and the company would go to the mountain. I remember not to comment on the forum, and I thought about myself — it’s good that such «alternatively gifted» at the board of directors at the AT and T does not take.

Well, so — I was wrong))) take. Prevently take. And in one stroke of the pen they can cross the quarter-time achievements of the company. Here’s what you need to be a common one, so as not to understand — there is a huge number of people who keep your very long-growing promotions just because you are a dividend aristocrat?

Well, here — in the new year at and t did not raise the size of dividends, as a result of which the company dropped out of the list of dividend aristocrats. No, they did not reduce payments, as it offered a vigorous guy on the forum — but now I do not see that they should stop them from such actions in the future — the situation is not the best of the company, and the dividends are really insanely huge for the United States — before hope that dividends It was not reduced to the company’s reluctance to fly from the list of dividend aristocrats. Now that from the list the company so flew out — I believe that the dividends in danger.

Said AT and T with minimal profit — less than four percent in four months (funny — in the form of a farewell «sorry» 1.5% of these four companies presented me on the last day)) Apparently, its conscience suffered for the irresponsible actions of his managers.

Well, my readers are experienced people, explain to them, which makes a person who suddenly received cache in the market, where the polymetal has fallen in the last days, is not required? ))

But not quite guess —