A portfolio for 40 million. Why not buy Enel?

25 сентября, 2021 от fake Выкл

«Where is the money, Zin?»

(c) V. Vysotsky.

I answer — it even attracted. And how could not be attracted? Very appetizing issuer. Let’s analyze it a little — I am licking for him, and readers, as usual, lucky — will get directly on the scenery, in the very short and non-straining form, the fruits of the «mind of cold observations and hearts of gradual notice»))

So.

Pros companies

Company Though in the second echelon, but

The company is engaged in electrical generation and heat generation. That is

Is an

Actively develops «green energy»

The main plus is at the time of restructuring of its income system (with GRES in the windark)

Since the company’s shares since the introduction of a «fixed dividend» stood in a clear sidewall — the action became «quasi-winition» with good income in the region of 9%. This yield immediately attracts attention (given that I, for example, focus on 5% as a desired request for annual dividend yield). But also all analysts are promised the company’s growth this year.

With pluses, it seems to be everything.

volume_up

For the sake of the construction of the windarkov, the company sold its dyic cow — Reftinskaya GRES. For the money received, Enel builds propellers throughout Russia. The case is commendable, environmentally friendly. That’s just with payback there are doubts.

Yes, the energy generated by wind farms should be cheaper than the resulting heat generation — no fuel costs. That is just the volume of production of this very energy of the company should fall dramatically — instead of 3,800 MW, which produced the Reftinskaya GRES. Total all wind farms Enel will produce about 360 MW (and this is by 2024 — in 2022 not everyone will be launched). Well? What will we trade? Pictures of propellers? The company, it seems, how, electricity supplied to the market, and now it seems that she will have a pipe with her supplies ((

Honestly — I do not see the company of serious prospects, except for the sale of business. Rumors about the planned sale of Interrao went to the market. Although rumors were refuted — but it seems that «smoke without fire is not there.» Interrao is configured to consolidate and build a huge amount of assets in the next 5 years. It seems that the purchase of UNIPRO and Enel just fits into this strategy.

I just want to say — with these arguments about Enel, almost all analysts do not agree. So all the respected readers who have invested in Enel or are planning to invest there, I once again repeat — I do not impose my opinion on anyone, I just tell, I came to one or another conclusions that do not claim to be infallible truth. The market is because it is convenient — here you can always wait a few years and find out who was right, nothing to «break a spear» in the rapid debates — each risks its money))

At the same time, taking this opportunity, I will tell about my «relationships» with analysts)) I reproached me in the comments for the fact that in our «tops» of shares for 2021 I actively referred to the opinions of analysts, so I have to clarify this situation a little more.

As you can see for this article, the opinion of analysts for me is not an unprofitable authority. Obviously, analysts are also people, and people tend to be mistaken. The best proof is that often on the same paper the opinions of different analysts are radically diverged. Therefore, to fully rely on the opinion of analysts, of course it is impossible. But you yourself are also a person. And the person is mistakenly mistaken. So it is quite nice to test my considerations — to reinforce them whose one more.

It turns out such a kind of «double filter». For me and my investment solutions it looks like this:

A) If I rate the paper positively (negatively), and all analysts agree with such an approach (yes, analysts have the unanimity), then for me it is a serious signal that my investment idea has passed additional approval. In this case, the decision on the investment is obvious to me.

B) If I evaluate the paper positively, but the opinions of analysts are diverted. In this case, this is a signal for me very much to think about this investment. Take him with high caution.

C) if I evaluate the paper positively, and all analysts of a negative opinion about it (this has not yet been — but theoretically) — it will be an unequivocal signal for me not to take the paper — I do not consider myself smarter than everyone, and the more I’m not going to prove it on the market.

D) if I evaluate the paper negatively, and all analysts are positive. Well, God is a judge to them)) I still have my own head on my shoulders and for my money I will not risk, putting in ideas in which I do not believe.

It seems to me that such an approach to analysts helps to use them at this stage of life as a kind of «Board of Directors» in my investment fund, until the real investment fund and this Board of Directors, I do not, I am also preparing to become